There’s been plenty of talk around the latest AP Top 25 poll, and Wake Forest landed in a spot that caught attention: the fourth-most votes among teams not ranked.
That makes the Deacs an obvious team to measure against the rest of the national picture, especially against programs already in the poll or just outside it. The numbers paint a mixed but revealing resume for Wake Forest a third of the way through the season.
Wake’s profile starts with ESPN’s metrics: FPI at 48, Strength of Record at 17, Strength of Schedule at 13, Remaining Strength of Schedule at 68, and Game Control Rank at 39.
The predictive side clearly isn’t sold yet. That FPI number suggests ESPN’s model is not especially high on Wake Forest right now, even though the Deacs have already built some respect through their strength of record and strength of schedule.
Big road wins have helped there. What stands out now is the other side of the equation: the schedule eases up quite a bit over the next two-thirds of the year, which is where Wake may not stack up as cleanly with other Top 25 contenders.
Duke is another team sitting just outside the rankings, and it also collected the fourth-most votes among teams not in the poll.
The Blue Devils come in with an FPI of 30, Strength of Record at 10, Strength of Schedule at 103, Remaining Strength of Schedule at 46, and Game Control Rank at 33.
Like Wake, Duke already owns an early road win over a Big Ten team, taking down Illinois. That result likely gave the Blue Devils a bump in strength of record.
The biggest difference between the two programs is schedule difficulty. Duke’s slate has been much lighter, though that will change as the season goes on.
Still, the efficiency of their wins is showing up in the numbers.
Missouri sits at No. 25 with a 3-1 record and a loss this past weekend to Mississippi State.
Its metrics: FPI 35, Strength of Record 42, Strength of Schedule 62, Remaining Strength of Schedule 3, and Game Control Rank 38.
This is the one that has to sting a bit for Wake Forest supporters. Missouri is ranked, but Wake is not, even though the Deacs compare favorably in strength of record and strength of schedule.
Missouri does have the better FPI, but the rest of the profile does not separate it from Wake in a way that feels obvious. The Tigers’ schedule also ramps up from here, and they have the third-hardest remaining slate.
That stretch starts this week against No. 8 Florida.
Kentucky checks in at No. 24 and is 3-1, with a home loss to Alabama and a road win over Texas A&M standing out on the résumé.
The Wildcats’ numbers read: FPI 36, Strength of Record 11, Strength of Schedule 10, Remaining Strength of Schedule 16, and Game Control Rank 11.
A lot of Kentucky’s analytics likely come back to that road win at Texas A&M. At the same time, recent results from the Aggies probably have dragged down the value of that victory.
What really jumps off the page is the Game Control Rank. That suggests a team that has, at times, handled games the way an average Top 25 team would be expected to - from start to finish.
Virginia Tech is right behind Wake Forest in the vote count, with the fifth-most votes among teams not ranked.
The Hokies have an FPI of 38, Strength of Record at 23, Strength of Schedule at 122, Remaining Strength of Schedule at 41, and Game Control Rank at 18.
So far, Virginia Tech hasn’t had much resistance on its schedule beyond a road win over Maryland. The offense looked efficient early, but that may have taken a hit after scoring only 21 points in a one-score win over Boston College. Even so, the game-control number remains strong, and the path ahead gets tougher.
Pitt is also in the mix, sitting with the seventh-most votes among teams outside the Top 25.
The Panthers’ profile: FPI 22, Strength of Record 22, Strength of Schedule 119, Remaining Strength of Schedule 49, and Game Control Rank 16.
On the analytics side, Pitt looks strong so far. The numbers like what the Panthers have done in terms of FPI, Strength of Record, and Game Control.
They haven’t faced much resistance yet, but that changes Friday when they play their first road game in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech. A win there would give Pitt a major resume boost and likely push it into the rankings.
In Other News...
Wake Forest Fans Finally Get A First Look At This New Roster
Wake Forest fans will get their first chance to see the new mens basketball roster in action on Sunday, when the Demon Deacons host Georgetown in an exhibition game at LJVM Coliseum. Tipoff is set for 12:30 p.m., and the afternoon is being set up as an easy entry point for supporters to get a look at the team before the games begin to matter.
The exhibition will not count toward official records, but it does bring a little extra intrigue to the building since the two programs have not met since 1997. Tickets are priced at $10 for general admission, children 12 and under are free with a family-friendly plan in place, and it should give Wake Forest an early read on what this group looks like in a game setting. [Read more 🡒]
Louisville Just Saw Why Wake Forest Looks Like A Real ACC Threat
Wake Forest went on the road and left with a win over one of the ACCs better teams, and the biggest reason was the way Gio Lopez handled the moment. The quarterback helped set the tone by getting the run game going early, then kept Louisville from settling in by reading coverages cleanly and delivering accurate throws when the pocket tightened.
Lopezs performance gave the Demon Deacons a reminder that they can travel and still look composed against quality conference opposition, which is usually the first real test of whether a team belongs in the ACC conversation. Stanford is next on the schedule, and Wake Forest will be looking for Lopez to keep that same rhythm as the season moves forward. [Read more 🡒]
Davis Warren Is Rising Fast As Stanford Faces A Real Week 5 Test
Through four weeks of the 2026 season, the ACC quarterback picture has already started to sort itself out, and that matters for Wake Forest as it keeps an eye on how the league stack-ups are forming around it. The latest review of the conferences passers leaned on recent game performances, individual production, and where each team stands heading into a busy Week 5 slate, giving a clearer sense of which quarterbacks are moving the needle and which matchups could reshape the conversation.
The upcoming schedule brings several tests that should tell us even more about the leagues pecking order, with quarterback play again set to drive the biggest outcomes. For Wake Forest, the value is in tracking not just who is rising right now, but who might keep building momentum when the pressure gets heavier next week. [Read more 🡒]