Two months into the season, the College Football Playoff committee has already done what it always seems to do: hand everyone a fresh batch of talking points.
The first Top 25 of the year arrived with little drama at the very top. No.
1 Miami and No. 3 Utah are two of the nation’s three undefeated teams left, and No.
2 Georgia has been mostly overwhelming, with the upset loss to Auburn standing out as the major blemish.
After that, the real debate started. The committee’s opening rankings always create a mess, and this week’s version is no different.
A few teams look a little too cozy with their spots. A few others look like they got shortchanged.
Indiana sits at No. 4, and the Hoosiers’ ability to keep stacking wins is hard to dismiss. Winning matters.
That part is obvious. But in a ranking pileup this tight, where zero-, one- and two-loss teams are all bunched together, the case for Indiana above some of the other teams in the top 10 is shaky.
The Hoosiers have played six Big Ten games, and only Rutgers has been beaten by more than one score. They also didn’t exactly load up the nonconference schedule, aside from a matchup with a good American squad in North Texas. Curt Cignetti may still have this team on track to sort out the quarterback situation and make another run at a national title, but right now No. 4 feels a little rich.
If there was one ranking that really set off the reaction machine, it was Alabama at No. 5.
That placement raised eyebrows immediately, and it’s not hard to see why. The Crimson Tide were off this past weekend, and their last three games include a competitive win over a bad Texas A&M team and back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee.
The Georgia defeat came in a hard-fought game, but Tennessee’s win over Alabama was far more decisive. That makes the committee’s treatment of the Tide even harder to follow, especially with Tennessee sitting two spots outside the field. The committee has shown elsewhere that head-to-head results matter a lot to it, including BYU over Notre Dame and Alabama’s one-spot edge over Kentucky.
Notre Dame is another team that looks out of place, just in the opposite direction. The Fighting Irish are No. 11 in the committee’s rankings, even though they sit fourth in the latest AP Top 25. Hunter Yurachek said Notre Dame still doesn’t have its “signature win” and added that the committee is “impressed” by the Irish.
That explanation only goes so far. Notre Dame’s win over Wisconsin keeps losing value, and the Irish missed a chance to land that signature result when they lost a close one to BYU in October.
Still, the overall body of work is strong. Even with some slow starts, Notre Dame has looked convincing in most of its other games, which is exactly what a top team should do against weaker opponents.
The numbers back that up, too: Notre Dame has the highest average margin of victory in the country. The Irish were probably always going to land behind BYU because of that head-to-head loss, controversial as it may have been, but No. 11 still feels low.
They also got some clear bulletin-board material ahead of their upcoming date with No. 1 Miami.
Then there’s Wake Forest, which may have the strongest case of all for being underrated. The Demon Deacons landed at No. 16, and that number looks harsh when you line it up against what they’ve done.
Wake Forest is 7-1, with its only loss coming against No. 1 Miami.
The Demon Deacons have also won their last four games by a combined 187-31, even if those opponents sit near the bottom of the ACC. ESPN’s strength of record metric has Wake Forest at 11th, which only sharpens the argument that the committee is leaning too hard on the schedule instead of the results.
Maybe the back half of the season changes everything. The Demon Deacons still have tougher ACC games ahead against SMU and Duke, and those matchups could either expose the ranking or make it look absurdly low. For now, though, Wake Forest looks like the kind of team the committee is underselling.
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