The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are heading into Saturday’s home matchup with Virginia coming off a bye, ranked No. 14 in the AP Poll and with the first College Football Playoff rankings set to drop Tuesday. That gives the Deacs a chance to make noise in front of their own crowd, but the Cavaliers are bringing a very real threat despite a bumpy 4-4 season.
Virginia’s year has been a lesson in how fast things can go sideways when mistakes pile up. Xander Tilock of Virginia Cavaliers on SI painted a picture of a team that has its share of talent, but has repeatedly undercut itself with errors, injuries, and inconsistency.
The Cavaliers, he said, could look like a 10-2 team on paper, yet are more likely headed for something closer to 6-6. The offense has been broken, the tackling has been sloppy, and the injury list has only made everything harder.
At the center of the offense is Beau Pribula, who brings a steady, careful style to the position. The ideal version of Virginia’s attack, according to Tilock, is one where Pribula stays patient in the pocket, delivers the ball on time, and uses his legs when the moment calls for it - not when he gets restless.
He does have a big arm, but the deep passing game has not been dependable. He may connect on one, but not much more than that.
Just as important, he has been cautious with the ball, which has kept interceptions near zero, though it has also left Virginia without much aggression through the air.
Defensively, though, this group has been much sturdier. Virginia is fourth in the ACC in scoring defense at 19.6 points allowed per game, and Tilock called it a genuinely good unit.
The Cavaliers’ two 38-point defensive outings against West Virginia and Florida State were attributed largely to missed tackles - more than 30 of them in total. Even with season-ending injuries to defensive tackle Jason Hammond and cornerback Omillio Agard, Virginia has remained afloat thanks to depth and smart scheming.
A few individual defenders stand out. BANDIT Matthew Fobbs-White is tied for the most pressures of any Power Four defender with 35, while linebacker Kam Robinson, one of the ACC’s top playmakers, is getting back to form. There is still one possible concern, though: more injuries could leave the Cavaliers without their top safeties against Wake Forest.
If Virginia wants its offense to wake up, the path is clear. Tilock pointed to 12 or 22 personnel as the answer, even though offensive coordinator Des Kitchings had talked about using those looks during training camp and they have not shown up often enough.
This week, that could change. Tight ends John Rogers and Dakota Twitty are both set to start with Virginia missing its top two wide receivers again.
With those heavier formations and an elite offensive line, the Cavaliers can create explosive plays and force defenses to handle more size and power. Too often, Pribula has been stuck facing crowded coverage after dropping back.
For Virginia to have any shot at pulling off the upset, the formula is simple: play aggressive football without giving anything away. Wake Forest, Tilock said, is as well-coached as almost anyone in the country and will not beat itself.
Virginia, however, does have more high-end talent than the team hosting it. If the Cavaliers play near their ceiling, they can win by multiple scores.
But that is not the expectation. If they can string together long, grinding scoring drives, then maybe the game stays interesting for a quarter or two.
In Other News...
Wake Forest Has Virginia Reeling In A Statement First Half
Wake Forest spent the first half putting Virginia on the back foot with a balanced, efficient attack that piled up more than 250 yards and turned possessions into points. The Deacons mixed two touchdown drives with two field goals, and Gio Lopez helped keep the offense moving while Ty Clark III gave the ground game a finishing touch.
The bigger edge came from the other side of the ball, where Wake Forest kept Virginia from finding any rhythm on key downs. The Cavaliers converted just two of four fourth-down tries, and the Deacons added an interception along with a crucial stop near the goal line to keep the pressure squarely on Virginia as the half wore on. [Read more 🡒]