Wake Forest is staring at a massive ACC test this week, and SMU brings the kind of offense that can turn a game sideways in a hurry.
The Mustangs enter at 7-2 overall and 5-2 in conference play, with wins over FSU, UC Davis, Missouri State, BC, UVA, Cal, and VT. Their two losses came against Louisville and Syracuse. Rhett Lashlee’s team has also stacked up a recruiting rank of 38 and a transfer portal rank of 32, while its win total sits at 8.5.
For Wake Forest, the stakes are obvious. A win would keep the Deacs alone in second place in the ACC and give them the tiebreaker over SMU.
From there, Wake would likely need just one win in its final two games to reach Charlotte. A loss would drop the Deacs into a five-way tie for second, leaving them needing to finish 2-0 and hope the tie-break math breaks their way.
The ACC’s new tie-break policy for a three-team-or-more tie uses a “Team Success Ranking” metric that isn’t public, though beating ACC teams by 40-plus points would seem to help.
The biggest challenge on the field is SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. The Mustangs’ offense leans on the pass, and Jennings is right at the center of it. He ranks fifth nationally in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, and SMU sits in the 90th percentile or better in passing success rate, yards per dropback, pass EPA/play, and pass explosive percentage.
Jennings has completed 74% of his throws for 2,764 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He’s slippery in the pocket, has a big arm, and can deliver throws from just about any angle without needing his feet perfectly set.
He’s not a designed-run threat in the mold of Pribula or Kienholz, but he does enough moving around to extend plays and let receivers uncover deep. His 9.8 yards per attempt ties him for fourth in the nation, a sign that SMU is hitting chunk plays rather than living off short completions.
He has also cleaned up the turnovers. After throwing four picks in his first two ACC games, Jennings has only two interceptions since September 19th.
That combination of explosive throws and better ball security is what makes SMU so dangerous. Wake Forest did a strong job against him last season, holding him to 21-39 passing for 179 yards and an interception, and Scottie Hazelton will be looking for that same formula again.
Jennings has plenty of help on the outside. Senior Yamir Knight ranks seventh in the ACC in receptions and eighth in yards, with 50 catches for 626 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was a headache for Virginia Tech last week, catching 6 passes for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns.
SMU also has ECU transfer Yannick Smith, who has 33 receptions for 521 yards and 2 touchdowns; sophomore Jalen Cooper, who has 32 catches for 487 yards and 2 touchdowns; and FSU transfer Randy Pittman, one of the better tight ends in the ACC, with 25 catches for 236 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Mustangs may not have a single headline star like Malachi Toney, but the way they spread the ball around can make them harder to defend.
There’s been a little more balance lately, too. SMU ran for 256 yards and 5 touchdowns against Cal two weeks ago, then followed that with 219 rushing yards and 2 scores against VT. Most of that work has gone to former NC State and Cal back Kendrick Raphael, who has 755 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the season.
Still, Wake’s run defense has been a real strength. Over its last five games against FBS opponents, the Deacs have allowed just 46 rushing yards per game and only two rushing touchdowns. That makes Raphael and the ground game less of a concern than Jennings and the passing attack.
SMU’s defense has been solid as well. The Mustangs are allowing 22.9 points per game, 319.8 yards per game, 125.9 rushing yards per game, and 193.9 passing yards per game. They’re giving up just 30% on third down, rank 13th in sacks per game at 3, and have forced 8 turnovers.
Up front, the pass rush drives a lot of what SMU does. UMass transfer Marques White leads the way with 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
Liberty transfer Aakil Washington has added 3 sacks and 5 tackles for loss, Kansas State transfer Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder has 2.5 sacks and 3 tackles for loss, and Louisiana Tech transfer Christian Davis has 1 sack and 4.5 tackles for loss. That front is likely to make life difficult for Gio Lopez and the Wake offense.
The back end has its own playmakers. Sixth-year senior Jimmy Wyrick has 44 combined tackles, 2 sacks, and an interception.
USF transfer Jarvis Lee has 29 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception. Sophomore Sael Reyes has 40 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.
Those three give SMU a versatile safety group that can be moved around to create problems.
Last year’s matchup was a messy one, a 13-12 game in which the teams combined for 550 total yards and 8 turnovers. This one carries far more weight. Wake Forest beat SMU last year in the Mustangs’ first ACC regular-season loss, and now the Deacs will try to do it again, this time in Dallas.
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