October brought a fresh round of chaos to ESPN’s FPI ratings, and Week 5 produced some of the biggest swings yet. The math-driven system was especially fond of blowouts this time around, which helped several teams climb fast while others tumbled hard after ugly losses.
Kansas got one of the week’s clearest boosts after hammering Middle Tennessee State 55-0. The 2-2 Jayhawks are still sitting at just a 37.7% chance to reach six wins, but the lopsided victory pushed them up from near the bottom of the Big 12 into the middle of the pack.
Wake Forest made an even louder statement in the ACC. Its 57-3 rout of Stanford sent the Deacons all the way up to fourth in the league, just one spot behind third place.
Wake is now third in the conference in playoff odds at 13.3%, with only Pitt and Miami ahead of it. That leaves Wake’s clearest path as simple as it gets: outlast Pitt and hope the ACC earns a second CFP berth.
Florida State, meanwhile, jumped 15 points after its win and now sits third in the ACC FPI rankings.
Missouri also cashed in on a dominant performance, using its 45-17 win over Florida to earn a notable rise in the SEC. Even so, the Tigers still have a long climb ahead.
Missouri is ranked 18th nationally and eighth in the conference, with a 10% shot at making the Playoff. That puts the Tigers well behind the SEC’s near-locks - Texas, Alabama and Georgia - and still a step back from LSU and Tennessee, who are fighting for what could be a fourth spot.
But with three top-10 opponents still left, Missouri has at least given itself a chance to keep climbing.
Virginia suffered the biggest drop of the week after getting blown out 38-7 by Florida State. The 3-2 Cavaliers fell from near the top of the ACC to ninth in the league. They’re still projected to reach a bowl, with an 81.3% chance of getting to six wins, but their playoff hopes have effectively disappeared at 0.6%.
Stanford’s situation looks even worse. After losing 57-3 to Wake Forest, the Cardinal sit at the bottom of the Power Four.
A few teams ranked ahead of the 2-3 Cardinal include Arkansas State, Jacksonville State, 1-3 Kennesaw State, Miami of Ohio and Colorado State. Stanford’s odds of reaching six wins are only 2.8%.
Cincinnati also took a serious hit after a 34-7 loss to Arizona. The Bearcats entered the week unbeaten, but at 4-1 their playoff chances are now down to 0.5%. Even getting to six wins and securing a bowl bid is far from certain, with FPI giving them a 75.9% chance to get there.
In Other News...
Wake Forest's First Exhibition Exposed Problems Fans Can't Ignore
Wake Forests first exhibition game of the season gave the staff an early look at where things stand, and the picture was a little rough. The Demon Deacons fell to Georgetown 94-77, with Kevair Kennedy pacing Wake Forest with 19 points, but the bigger story was the way the offense bogged down when the shots from deep stopped falling. Against a Georgetown team that handled the perimeter battle better, Wake Forest never really found the kind of rhythm that can make an exhibition feel like a tune-up instead of a warning sign.
Forbes framed the night as useful in the long run, even if the result was hard to ignore in the moment. Early exhibitions are supposed to reveal problems before the games count, and Wake Forest got a clear dose of that here, especially on the outside shooting front. The next stretch will show whether the loss was simply a messy October checkpoint or a preview of issues the Demon Deacons will have to clean up quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Wake Forests First Preseason Look Raised Some Familiar Concerns
Wake Forests first preseason test came with the usual small-sample caveat, but the October 4 scrimmage against Georgetown still offered an early glimpse at where the Demon Deacons have work to do. They were outrebounded and had trouble getting stops, especially when the Hoyas found rhythm from three-point range, which is the kind of familiar concern that tends to travel with a team into the regular season if it is not cleaned up quickly.
There were encouraging signs mixed in, though, including promising showings from the Placide twins and Jamari McDowell. It is far too early to treat one scrimmage as a forecast for what Wake Forest will become, but the outing did reinforce that the Deacons have some real upside and some obvious areas to tighten before the games start counting for real. [Read more 🡒]
Wake Forest Just Got The Confidence Boost Deacs Fans Needed
Wake Forest finally has the kind of statement win that can reset the conversation around the rest of its season. The Demon Deacons rolled past Stanford 57-3, and in doing so delivered the biggest conference victory in program history while improving to 4-1 overall. It was the sort of complete performance that gives a locker room belief and gives fans something tangible to point to beyond just the record.
Gio Lopez was at the center of it, accounting for five total touchdowns as the offense kept humming from start to finish. Just as important, the defense made Stanford look out of sorts all afternoon, holding the Cardinal to 197 total yards and three points. For a Wake Forest team trying to build momentum, the challenge now is turning one emphatic win into something more lasting. [Read more 🡒]