Virginia Tech enters the season with ESPN’s Football Power Index slotting the Hokies at No. 33, a number that says a lot without shouting too much. It leaves room for progress, but it also keeps the brakes on any runaway optimism.
ESPN describes FPI as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.” The system, as outlined by ESPN, says, “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”
At No. 33, Virginia Tech lands in a spot that fits the broad outline of this team entering James Franklin’s first season in Blacksburg. The Hokies have enough going for them to believe seven or eight wins is on the table in Year 1 under Franklin, but anything beyond that likely depends on how the ACC shapes up around them.
That ranking also puts Virginia Tech in the upper half of the Power Four without pushing the Hokies into the circle of true College Football Playoff contenders. Given the disappointment of the 2025 season and the arrival of a new staff, that feels like a fair starting point.
Still, there are paths for the Hokies to beat the number.
Quarterback play is the obvious one. If Ethan Grunkemeyer settles in quickly and becomes one of the ACC’s better quarterbacks, the offense has a chance to take off.
Virginia Tech has given him help at the skill positions with Luke Reynolds and Ayden Greene, and it is also counting on a more balanced ground game behind Jeffrey Overton Jr. A better offense would change the tone of a lot of close games in a hurry.
Grunkemeyer passed for 1,339 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions as a redshirt freshman at Penn State in 2025. Hawkins ran for 749 yards as the starter, while Overton had 146 rushing yards over the last four games. Reynolds finished with 257 receiving yards last season as a sophomore at Penn State, and Greene recorded 516 receiving yards in 2025.
There’s a defensive route forward, too. If the front seven gets more heat on opposing quarterbacks and the secondary turns those mistakes into takeaways, Virginia Tech could swing a few one-possession games its way.
If the Hokies take care of the games they should win and steal one or two against higher-ranked opponents, an eight- or nine-win regular season is in play.
The warning signs are real as well. Virginia Tech’s final seven games include trips to Berkeley, Calif., Dallas, Texas, Miami Gardens, Fla. and Clemson, S.C., a brutal stretch of travel that could make life difficult late in the year.
If Franklin’s first team finds its footing quickly, gets steady quarterback play and takes a step forward on defense, a top-25 finish would not be out of the question if the Hokies get to nine wins. If the season is marked by inconsistency and growing pains, then finishing well below the FPI projection would make sense, too.
Virginia Tech opens the 2026 season against VMI on Saturday, Sept. 5, at 7:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network. It will be the first meeting between the Hokies and Keydets since 1984.
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