Two games into the James Franklin era, Virginia Tech is still unbeaten, and ESPN’s Football Power Index is starting to sort out just how much trouble is ahead.
The Hokies opened with a 73-3 rout of VMI, then backed it up Saturday with a 44-21 win over Old Dominion to move to 2-0 for the first time since 2021. That early surge has set up a much tougher stretch, starting with Saturday night’s first Power Four test at Maryland.
Maryland is also 2-0 after beating Hampton and UConn, but Virginia Tech heads to College Park riding some real momentum after piling up 117 points across its first two games and allowing just 24. If FPI is right, the Hokies will be 3-0 for the first time since the 2017 season and will also have their first non-conference Power Four win since that same year.
The model sees a far friendlier road trip after that. Virginia Tech has an 80.9% chance to beat Boston College, the second-best odds left on the schedule. The Eagles fell 34-15 to Cincinnati in their opener, then answered with a 28-21 win over Rutgers in BC’s Red Bandanna game.
One of the tighter calls on the slate remains Pitt, though the Hokies have nudged into the favorite’s spot. Last week that matchup was a literal 50.0-50.0 coin flip; now FPI gives Virginia Tech a 52.6% chance.
Pitt, like Virginia Tech, is 2-0. Mason Heintschel threw for an ACC-record seven touchdowns in a season-opening blowout of Miami (OH), then the Panthers survived UCF 12-7.
Virginia Tech’s first cross-country trip also comes with a surprisingly strong projection. FPI gives the Hokies nearly a three-in-four shot at beating California in Berkeley. The Golden Bears lost their opener to UCLA 45-24 before bouncing back with a 21-18 victory.
Georgia Tech visiting Lane Stadium is another spot where the model likes Virginia Tech. The Hokies are at 79.1% there, which is the third-highest remaining win probability on the schedule.
The Yellow Jackets are 0-2 after a 14-13 loss to Colorado and a 45-24 defeat to No. 18 Tennessee.
In those two games, starter Alberto Mendoza has gone 43-of-63 for 458 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and seven sacks.
At Clemson, FPI still leans Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies a 58.9% chance to win on the road. That would mean their first victory over the Tigers since 2007.
Clemson was blown out 51-10 by then-No. 11 LUS in its opener, then followed with a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern in a game where the offense stayed pretty quiet.
Then comes the projection that ends the unbeaten talk.
Virginia Tech’s lowest chance to win among the remaining games belongs to the trip to Miami, where FPI gives the Hokies just a 9.6% shot. Through two games, Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah is 41-of-45 for 653 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Malachi Toney has 330 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 16 catches, while true freshman Javian Mallory has added 173 rushing yards and two scores.
Miami has already rolled through Stanford 45-6 and Florida A&M 77-7, with the Hurricanes piling up 856 yards of offense against Florida A&M.
SMU is the other team FPI currently favors over Virginia Tech, and the Mustangs are the only remaining opponent with a projection nearly as stark. The Hokies have just a 34.4% chance to win that road game.
SMU escaped Florida State 27-24 despite finishing with more than 200 extra yards of offense, then followed it with a 56-10 win over UC Davis. The Mustangs’ game this weekend against No.
23 Louisville should offer more clarity in the ACC race.
Stanford, meanwhile, is the most favorable matchup left for Virginia Tech. The Hokies have a 90.6% chance to beat the Cardinal in Blacksburg, the only remaining game where they crack the 90% mark.
Stanford was off this week after opening with a 37-27 win over Hawaii and then getting hammered by then-No. 7 Miami 45-6.
The Commonwealth Clash is also shaping up as a toss-up, though Virginia holds the slightest edge this time. That’s a change from last week’s projection, and it comes after Virginia Tech’s recent grip on the rivalry ended last season. Still, the Hokies had gone 19-for-20 in the series from 2004-2024, and Franklin’s first meeting with Virginia gives them a chance to bring the Cup back to Blacksburg.
Virginia opened with a 34-8 win over NC State and followed with a 59-3 win over Norfolk State. The Cavaliers are in Charlotte, N.C., this weekend for a neutral-site matchup with West Virginia.
If FPI plays out the rest of the way, Virginia Tech’s regular season would finish at 9-3.
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