Virginia Tech’s 35-26 win over Maryland did more than push the Hokies to 3-0. It also made the rest of the schedule look a lot friendlier, at least through the lens of ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The Hokies are off to their first 3-0 start since 2017, and they also snapped a 15-game losing streak against Power Four nonconference opponents. With the first quarter of the regular season in the books, FPI now sees a path that includes plenty of manageable spots - and a few games that suddenly look very winnable.
Virginia Tech opens ACC play with a road trip to Chestnut Hill for a noon game against Boston College. The Eagles are 2-1 after bouncing back from a season-opening loss to Cincinnati with wins over Rutgers and Maine, but FPI still gives Virginia Tech the edge. In fact, Boston College is the Hokies’ second-highest remaining win probability, trailing only Stanford.
Back in Lane Stadium for the first time since beating Old Dominion, Virginia Tech gets Pitt in what FPI views as its tightest remaining matchup. The Panthers are 3-0, though Mason Heintschel has not thrown a touchdown since his seven-touchdown outburst against Miami (OH). Even so, this is the narrowest projected win on the Hokies’ schedule.
The next road trip takes Virginia Tech all the way to Berkeley, and the model still likes the Hokies there. Cal is 2-1 and 1-0 in the ACC, with losses to UCLA and a win over Syracuse before a 49-7 rout of Wagner. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele piled up 413 passing yards in that last one, but FPI still makes Virginia Tech a substantial favorite.
Georgia Tech comes to Lane Stadium next, and that projection is even stronger. Virginia Tech’s 80.8% chance to win is its third-best remaining mark, behind only Stanford and Boston College.
The Yellow Jackets are 1-2, with a win over Mercer sandwiched between losses to Colorado and then-No. 18 Tennessee.
Then comes the game that jumps off the page: Clemson on the road. That would usually be one of the toughest spots on the calendar, and Virginia Tech has not beaten Clemson away from home since 2007.
But FPI gives the Hokies a 60.5% chance to win. If the model played out exactly, Virginia Tech would move to 8-0.
Clemson opened with a 51-10 loss to then-No. 11 LSU, then beat Georgia Southern 22-7 and North Carolina 28-20 after rallying back.
If Virginia Tech did get through those first eight games unbeaten, SMU would be where the streak likely ends. The Mustangs are one of only two remaining teams FPI favors over Virginia Tech, though the gap is still not as wide as it is for the Hokies’ other projected loss.
SMU opened with a 27-24 win over Florida State, beat UC Davis 56-10, and then lost 41-31 at then-No. 23 Louisville.
After that, no remaining game is projected more favorably for Virginia Tech than Stanford. The Hokies would be expected to bounce back immediately from that first loss and collect their ninth win.
Stanford opened with a 37-27 win over Hawaii, then was beaten by then-No. 7 Miami 45-6 and Duke 35-7 to sit at 1-2 heading into its Sept. 26 game with Georgia Tech.
The biggest swing in Virginia Tech’s outlook comes against Miami. The Hokies have just a 13.7% chance to win on the road, more than 29 percentage points lower than against any other remaining opponent.
Miami has been rolling, outscoring its three opponents 155-33. The Hurricanes beat Stanford 45-6, crushed Florida A&M 77-7, and then topped Wake Forest 33-20 in a game where wide receiver Malachi Toney, running back Mark Fletcher, and defensive lineman Ahmad Moten were limited.
Running back CharMar Brown and wide receiver Joshua Moore are out for the season, according to head coach Mario Cristobal.
Virginia Tech’s outlook in the Commonwealth Cup also improved after Virginia’s 38-27 loss to West Virginia in Charlotte, N.C. FPI now gives the Hokies a 63% chance to beat Virginia at Lane Stadium, a much more comfortable number than the near toss-up before the season. Virginia opened with a 34-8 win over NC State and a 59-3 win over Norfolk State before quarterback Beau Pribula went 21-of-33 for 197 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to the Mountaineers.
If the Hokies followed the model all the way to the end, they would finish James Franklin’s first regular season with double-digit wins. A 10-2 record with two conference losses probably still would not be enough to reach the conference championship game, since one of those losses would come against SMU. Even so, it would mark Virginia Tech’s best season in a long time and give James Franklin plenty of momentum to keep building.
In Other News...
Virginia Tech Faces A Tough Test In Conditions Built To Disrupt Offenses
Wet weather has a way of shrinking a football game, and that is the kind of backdrop waiting for Virginia Tech when it lines up against Boston College. Forecasts point to conditions that could make rhythm hard to find on offense, turning every snap, throw and kick into a little more of a test than usual. For a Hokies team trying to build momentum, the setting adds another layer of difficulty to a matchup that already looks like one where patience and field position may matter as much as explosiveness.
There has still been some good news around the program. Tyson Flowers has been named a semifinalist for the Campbell Trophy, and Luke Reynolds picked up a Player of the Week nod from the Mackey Award Committee, reminders that individual recognition can still cut through a week shaped by the weather. Even so, the bigger question remains how Virginia Tech will handle a game that seems designed to disrupt offenses and force the Hokies to win with composure, discipline and whatever passing rhythm they can manufacture when the elements are working against them. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Has One Big ACC Opener Concern Despite The Edge
Virginia Tech heads into its ACC opener with plenty to like on paper, carrying a 3-0 record and clear statistical advantages over Boston College. The Eagles have been inconsistent on offense and will be missing starting center Michael Crounse, which only adds to the challenge of slowing down a Hokies team that has looked sharper through the first month.
Still, the bigger concern may come from the sky instead of the opponent. A noreaster is expected to bring rain and strong winds to the matchup, conditions that can dull the pace and turn a cleaner team into the one that survives the best. In a game like this, turnovers can swing everything, and Virginia Tech may need to prove it can handle a messy afternoon as much as it can handle Boston College. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Faces Another O-Line Test Ahead Of Boston College
Virginia Tech is heading into its matchup with Boston College with more changes up front, as injuries have opened the door for two new starters on the offensive line. Logan Howland and Brody Meadows are expected to step in for Justin Terry and Montavious Cunningham, giving the Hokies another look at a unit that has had to absorb plenty of shuffling already this season.
Howland, the Oklahoma transfer, brings prior starting experience and has already logged significant snaps for Virginia Tech this year, which should help steady the transition. Meadows, a Virginia native, has also seen game action in multiple contests and is poised to handle the right guard spot as the Hokies try to keep the line functional for a key ACC matchup. [Read more 🡒]