Virginia Tech’s bowl picture took a hit in Dallas, but the 51-28 loss to SMU wasn’t the only result shaping the Hokies’ path.
Saturday was the day that really moved the board. Louisville, Duke and Clemson all won, and those three ACC results did more damage to Tech’s outlook than the loss itself.
The Hokies are now 6-3 overall and 3-3 in the ACC, sitting behind six league teams with fewer conference losses. Pitt is also ahead of them after matching Tech’s 3-3 mark and owning the head-to-head after a 35-33 win on Oct.
The national bowl projections were all over the map, but they mostly clustered around the same tier. CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford sent Tech to the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville against Ole Miss on Dec.
- Steven Lassan of Athlon Sports kept the Hokies in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 28, but paired them with Oregon instead of Oregon State.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach also kept Tech in the Gator, though he flipped the opponent from Tennessee to LSU. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura had Virginia Tech heading to the Sun Bowl in El Paso on New Year’s Eve against Arizona.
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer was the only one who moved the Hokies down, sliding them from the Pop-Tarts Bowl to the Holiday Bowl against USC.
The ACC’s top bowl tier - the Pop-Tarts, Gator and Holiday - is where Virginia Tech is trying to stay. Every projection that keeps the Hokies there depends on one of two things.
Schlabach and Fischer send Wake Forest to the Playoff, which opens a spot. Crawford and Lassan keep Wake Forest in the bowl pool but place Louisville below Tech, even though the Cardinals are 5-2 in the league and have won four straight.
Bonagura doesn’t give Tech either break, which is why he’s the board with the Hokies in El Paso.
The conference standings explain why this is getting crowded fast. Miami is 6-0 in ACC play, Wake Forest is 5-1, Louisville and SMU are 5-2, and Duke and Clemson are both 4-2. Virginia Tech and Pitt are next at 3-3.
An 8-4 finish would leave Tech at 5-4 in the league, and the tiebreakers matter from there. SMU can’t finish behind the Hokies because it wins any tie.
Louisville would need to lose at North Carolina on Saturday and again against Pitt on Nov. 21 just to get back even with Tech. Pitt only needs to match the Hokies.
Duke and Clemson meet on Nov. 20, so one of them will take a third conference loss. If Clemson is the one that slips, Tech owns that tiebreaker thanks to its 20-16 win on Oct.
- If Duke loses, the Blue Devils would need wins at Miami and Wake Forest to stay ahead.
Even after Notre Dame beat Miami, all five boards still have the Hurricanes in the Playoff. That leaves an 8-4 Virginia Tech in a tricky spot, likely somewhere between fourth and seventh in the ACC bowl order, with only three top-tier slots available.
The projections split on how that shakes out. Crawford and Lassan are banking on Tech getting the nod over Louisville.
Schlabach and Fischer are betting Wake Forest reaches the Playoff, but even then the Hokies would still need to beat out Pitt and the winner of Duke-Clemson for the last premium ACC bowl spot. The committee had Wake Forest 16th in its first rankings, and the next set comes Tuesday night.
Since the ACC doesn’t set a pick order inside its bowl tiers, either path could work out. But after giving up 51 points, Virginia Tech doesn’t look like a team to trust with the benefit of the doubt.
For now, the projection here is the Sun Bowl on Dec. 31 at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, with a 2 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS.
Four of the five boards already have Clemson in that spot, and Tech’s Oct. 24 win gives it a real case if the seat opens up. If the Hokies get to 9-3, the ceiling rises to the Gator Bowl, because a win at Miami would make them hard to ignore.
If they fall to 7-5, the floor drops to the Pinstripe Bowl, or even the Fenway Bowl if Wake Forest stays in the bowl pool.
Before the trip to Dallas, Virginia Tech’s ACC title hopes depended on Wake Forest losing. That race is basically gone now, but Hokies fans still have something to root for Saturday at noon, when the Demon Deacons face SMU on the same field where the Mustangs scored 51.
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