Virginia Tech’s 73-3 dismantling of VMI did more than pad the scoreboard. It also nudged ESPN’s Football Power Index in the Hokies’ direction, and the updated game-by-game outlook now paints a much brighter path for a team that opened 1-0 with its largest margin of victory in 104 years.
The next test comes quickly, with Old Dominion visiting Blacksburg on Sept. 12.
The Monarchs beat Norfolk State 31-10 in Week 1, though they carried only a 17-10 lead into the fourth quarter. Even so, FPI still has Virginia Tech taking care of business and moving to 2-0.
That result would keep the Hokies on track for an early nonconference push that includes a trip to Maryland. Virginia Tech hasn’t won an out-of-conference Power Four game since 2017 against West Virginia, but the Terrapins look like one of the more manageable chances to end that drought.
Maryland went 4-8 last season, finished 1-8 in the Big Ten and dropped its final eight games. The Terps opened with a 62-0 win over Hampton, though that came against an FCS opponent.
In the FPI forecast, Virginia Tech gets to 3-0 and finally lands that nonconference Power Four win.
Boston College comes next in ACC play, and the numbers again lean Hokies. The Eagles won only two games last season and went 1-7 in the conference, then opened this year with a 34-15 loss to Cincinnati.
Mason McKenzie completed 18 of 35 passes for 224 yards in that game. On the FPI board, Virginia Tech is favored to win in Chestnut Hill and start league play 1-0.
Then comes the one game that sits dead even. FPI lists Virginia Tech and Pitt at exactly 50.0% apiece.
The Panthers gave themselves plenty of momentum in Week 1, with Mason Heintschel going 31-of-41 for 453 yards and an ACC-record seven passing touchdowns in a win over Miami (Ohio). The projection calls it a true toss-up, and the model treats it as a split result for the Hokies.
After that, the path still looks favorable. California ranks as the third-lowest team in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, and while the Golden Bears beat UCLA in Week 1, they also gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele finished 24-for-41 for 271 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. FPI has Virginia Tech taking that one, with the Hokies either 5-1 or 6-0 depending on the Pitt result.
Georgia Tech is next, and the Yellow Jackets arrive off a 14-13 loss to Colorado. Julian Lewis hit Charlie Williams for a late touchdown before Aidan Birr’s 45-yard field goal try was blocked with 42 seconds left.
Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech 35-20 in Atlanta last season, but Haynes King is now in the NFL, and the updated projection gives the Hokies the edge. Alberto Mendoza threw for 237 yards in his starting debut, though he didn’t find the end zone.
Clemson is where the FPI run really pops. The Tigers were hammered 51-10 by LSU, with Christopher Vizzina held to 83 passing yards and an interception and Jarvis Green leading the team with 21 rushing yards. Virginia Tech is projected to win that one as well, which would end a losing streak against Clemson that dates back to 2007.
The first projected setback comes against SMU. The Mustangs escaped Florida State 27-24 after a 100-minute power delay, despite outgaining the Seminoles by 261 yards and holding them to 2-for-15 on third down.
Kevin Jennings threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns but also had two interceptions. FPI has Virginia Tech taking the loss there, leaving the Hokies at either 8-1 or 7-2 depending on what happens against Pitt.
Stanford, at least by the numbers, should be a smoother assignment. The Cardinal opened with a win over Hawaii, then got drilled 45-6 by No.
7 Miami, surrendering 549 total yards while Davis Warren went 21-of-41 for 214 yards. At home, Virginia Tech is expected to handle business.
Miami is the one place where the model clearly tightens the screws. The Hurricanes’ 45-6 win over Stanford featured Darian Mensah going 27-of-30 for 410 yards and five touchdowns, while Malachi Toney piled up 234 receiving yards on 12 catches and scored three times. FPI sees Virginia Tech falling there, which drops the Hokies to either 9-2 or 8-3.
The regular-season finale is as close as it gets. Virginia and Virginia Tech are separated by just six-tenths of a percentage point in FPI, and that’s after Virginia opened with a 34-8 blowout of NC State in Week 0 and then sat out Week 1. By the slimmest of margins, the model gives the Hokies the edge in Blacksburg and a chance to reclaim the Commonwealth Cup after Virginia took it last season.
Add up the full FPI forecast, including VMI, and Virginia Tech comes out to an expected record of roughly 7.7-4.3.
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