A wet, windy afternoon in Chestnut Hill is about to test Virginia Tech in ways the first three weeks haven’t. With a nor’easter rolling in and forecasts calling for rain all game, sustained winds of at least 20 mph and gusts around 40, my confidence meter on the Hokies in their ACC opener sits at 80 percent.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is even higher on Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies an 86.4 percent shot. The weather is the only reason those numbers aren’t closer.
Virginia Tech has been the better team by a clear margin. The Hokies are 3-0 for the first time since 2017 and have piled up a 152-50 scoring edge against VMI, Old Dominion and Maryland.
Grunkemeyer has been sharp throughout the start, going 79 of 101 for 865 yards with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Penn State transfer is the first Hokies quarterback since Ryan Willis in 2018 to throw for 300 yards in back-to-back games.
The defense has been every bit as imposing. Brent Pry’s unit has racked up 14 sacks and 37 tackles for loss, both national highs. Maryland managed just 21 rushing attempts for 64 yards last Saturday.
Boston College comes in at 2-1, but the path there has been uneven. The Eagles dropped their opener at Cincinnati 34-15, then beat Rutgers 28-21 and Maine 22-16. The Maine game was especially awkward: Boston College was a 38.5-point favorite, reached the red zone five times and never scored a touchdown.
Quarterback Mason McKenzie, a Division II transfer from Saginaw Valley State, has thrown for 648 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 58.8 percent of his passes. The Eagles will also be without starting center Michael Crounse, who was hurt against Cincinnati and ruled out on Wednesday night’s availability report.
That leaves redshirt freshman DJ Williams in line for a third straight start, and he has already dealt with snapping issues. Put a young center, a wet football and the nation’s sack leaders together, and the matchup starts to look like trouble.
The rain and wind don’t change the better team. They just cut down the number of chances that team gets to prove it.
That matters because Virginia Tech has done most of its damage through the air. The Hokies rank No. 75 nationally in rushing at 162.7 yards per game, so if the weather takes the deep passing game away, Marcellous Hawkins Jr. and Jeffrey Overton Jr. may have to shoulder an offense that hasn’t needed them much yet.
Boston College has created turnovers, with six interceptions in three games. Anthony Palano picked off two passes against Rutgers, and KP Price had two against Maine. Grunkemeyer’s clean sheet has come against defenses that haven’t looked quite this opportunistic or conditions quite this rough.
Virginia Tech’s injury situation adds another layer. Left tackle Justin Terry and wide receiver Ayden Greene are both questionable after getting hurt at Maryland, and right guard Montavious Cunningham joined them as questionable on Thursday’s report. That leaves the Hokies with some uncertainty up front in a game that could demand a heavier ground attack.
Eighty percent confidence doesn’t mean Virginia Tech is about to look like the team that hung 73 on VMI. It means the Hokies should still win, even if the weather drags the game into something ugly.
And ugly games usually come down to turnovers. That’s where the quarterback edge becomes even more important: Grunkemeyer has none, McKenzie has five. Boston College’s defense may need to steal possessions, because its offense couldn’t find the end zone on five red-zone trips against an FCS opponent.
In Other News...
Virginia Techs Schedule Suddenly Looks Better Than Hokies Fans Expected
Virginia Techs win over Maryland did more than move the Hokies to 3-0. It gave the program its first such start since 2017 and snapped a 15-game skid against Power Four nonconference opponents, a stretch that had been hanging over the early part of the season for years. After a summer of uncertainty, the opening month has pushed the Hokies into a far more interesting place than many expected.
ESPNs Football Power Index only adds to that buzz, projecting Virginia Tech as the favorite in most of its remaining nine games. The toughest road remains obvious, with SMU and Miami standing out as the biggest challenges and the Miami matchup drawing the lowest win probability, but the model also leaves room for a season that keeps building. A trip to Clemson now looks like a game Virginia Tech can at least realistically circle, which is a long way from where this schedule seemed headed a few weeks ago. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Faces A Tough Test In Conditions Built To Disrupt Offenses
Wet weather has a way of shrinking a football game, and that is the kind of backdrop waiting for Virginia Tech when it lines up against Boston College. Forecasts point to conditions that could make rhythm hard to find on offense, turning every snap, throw and kick into a little more of a test than usual. For a Hokies team trying to build momentum, the setting adds another layer of difficulty to a matchup that already looks like one where patience and field position may matter as much as explosiveness.
There has still been some good news around the program. Tyson Flowers has been named a semifinalist for the Campbell Trophy, and Luke Reynolds picked up a Player of the Week nod from the Mackey Award Committee, reminders that individual recognition can still cut through a week shaped by the weather. Even so, the bigger question remains how Virginia Tech will handle a game that seems designed to disrupt offenses and force the Hokies to win with composure, discipline and whatever passing rhythm they can manufacture when the elements are working against them. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Faces Another O-Line Test Ahead Of Boston College
Virginia Tech is heading into its matchup with Boston College with more changes up front, as injuries have opened the door for two new starters on the offensive line. Logan Howland and Brody Meadows are expected to step in for Justin Terry and Montavious Cunningham, giving the Hokies another look at a unit that has had to absorb plenty of shuffling already this season.
Howland, the Oklahoma transfer, brings prior starting experience and has already logged significant snaps for Virginia Tech this year, which should help steady the transition. Meadows, a Virginia native, has also seen game action in multiple contests and is poised to handle the right guard spot as the Hokies try to keep the line functional for a key ACC matchup. [Read more 🡒]