Virginia Tech’s first loss under James Franklin actually pushed the confidence meter up, not down.
It now sits at 75% for Saturday’s road game at Cal, and the reason is pretty simple: the Hokies’ loss to Pitt looked a lot more like a turnover mess than a team getting outclassed. Virginia Tech outgained the Panthers 499-295 and still fell 35-33 after four turnovers and a 36-yard miss as time expired.
Pitt felt like a coin flip. Cal does not.
The matchup points hard toward Virginia Tech controlling the line of scrimmage. Cal is averaging just 95.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks 133rd in the FBS, and the Bears are giving up 187.4 on the ground at 5.2 yards per carry. Tech, meanwhile, is allowing only 87.4 rushing yards per game, good for 14th nationally, and sits 17th in third-down defense.
That kind of profile turns Cal into a drop-back offense against a front that has piled up 18 sacks, the most in the ACC. Aycen Stevens has 5.5 of them, Cortez Harris has five, and together they account for more than half the team total. Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has already been sacked eight times.
His availability is still up in the air, too. Sagapolutele was questionable on Thursday night’s availability report, along with eight other Bears.
Adam Mohammed, Cal’s leading rusher, and safety Kingston Lopa are also questionable. Lopa leads the FBS with five interceptions.
Running back Carter Vargas is out. Sagapolutele is in concussion protocol and did not take part in the contact portion of Tuesday’s practice.
When he has faced power-conference competition, Sagapolutele has produced 6.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and four interceptions across three games.
Virginia Tech also has a chance to reset its own run game after managing only 65 rushing yards against Pitt. Jeffrey Overton Jr. is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on 77 attempts, and the Hokies gashed Cal for 357 rushing yards a year ago.
Turnovers could still be the wrinkle that makes this game messy. Ethan Grunkemeyer had gone 136 passes without an interception before throwing two against Pitt.
Cal has nine takeaways, and seven of them have come via interception. If Lopa is available in the secondary, that number becomes even more dangerous.
The Hokies have also lost some of their late-game sharpness. They scored touchdowns on just two of six red-zone chances against Boston College and Pitt, and their four FBS opponents have outscored them 55-45 after halftime. The defense has not forced a turnover in three games.
Virginia Tech’s offensive line is not fully intact, either. Left tackle Justin Terry is out again, while Lucas Austin, Roseby Lubintus, and Brody Meadows are all questionable.
There is also the variable nobody can really map out from the outside. Cal coach Tosh Lupoi gave the play sheet to passing game coordinator Pat McCann at halftime in Las Vegas, and the Bears scored 24 points after the break.
Franklin said Monday he couldn’t tell who was calling plays. So Virginia Tech is preparing for an offense with only half the film, on the other side of the country, in its third road game in four weeks.
Still, the cleanest path in this one is the giveaway battle. If Virginia Tech breaks even in turnovers, Cal’s offense may not have enough juice to keep up. The Bears have scored on 15 of 16 red-zone trips, but they are converting only 34.7% of their third downs and just three of 13 fourth downs, which means they do not get those scoring chances often enough.
Seventy-five percent does not mean safe. Give Cal a few short fields, and the whole thing gets uncomfortable fast.
But the read here is that it doesn’t happen. The expectation is Virginia Tech leaves with a 5-1 record, and Georgia Tech comes to Lane Stadium on Oct. 17.
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Virginia Tech Could Catch Cal At The Perfect Time On Offense
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Cortez Harris has been part of the pressure package that keeps putting opposing offenses on edge, while Quentin Reddish has been around the ball in the secondary as the Hokies keep creating extra chances. The bigger question now is whether that disruption can keep turning into cleaner possession swings, because Virginia Techs defense already looks like it can change a game before the offense ever has to settle in. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Faces One Huge Edge If Saturday's Uncertainty Breaks Right
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The uncertainty is on both sidelines, with several key availability questions shaping the matchup before kickoff. Virginia Tech is sorting through a mix of injury concerns along its offensive line, while Cal has important questions of its own as it tries to piece together a plan under center and in the back end, making Saturday feel like one of those games where the first real break could carry extra weight. [Read more 🡒]