Virginia Tech gets a chance to stop the slide Saturday, and SP+ likes the Hokies to do it.
Coming off consecutive losses to Pitt and Cal, Virginia Tech returns to Lane Stadium for its Homecoming game against Georgia Tech with a clear edge in the numbers. SP+ projects the Hokies as 10.7-point favorites, with a rounded final score of 33-22 and a 75% win probability.
That would be a welcome reset for a Virginia Tech team that started 4-0 for the first time since 2017 before the two-game skid. The last two defeats came by tight margins - 35-33 against Pitt and 25-20 at Cal - and another loss would send the Hokies into a three-game tumble.
Georgia Tech arrives at 2-3 overall and 1-1 in ACC play after snapping its own rough stretch with a 28-25 win over previously unbeaten Duke on Saturday. Before that, the Yellow Jackets had dropped three of four, falling to Colorado 14-13, then-No. 18 Tennessee 45-24 and Stanford 34-27.
The win over Duke came down to the final seconds. Running back Trelain Maddox ran for 81 yards and three touchdowns, including a 1-yard score with 54 seconds left. Duke kicker Gavin Strange then missed a 33-yard field goal that would have decided the game the other way.
Virginia Tech’s SP+ profile also takes into account where Georgia Tech stacks up against the rest of the Hokies’ schedule. The Yellow Jackets rank 64th in Connelly’s overall metrics, making them the second-strongest opponent Virginia Tech has faced so far.
Only Pitt, at No. 36, grades out higher. California, which beat the Hokies 25-20 in Berkeley on Oct. 10, is ranked No.
Georgia Tech quarterback Alberto Mendoza played well against Duke, going 23-of-30 for 218 yards and a touchdown. Mendoza, the younger brother of the 2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick and Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, has thrown for 1,193 yards this season with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions on 107-of-153 passing.
Virginia Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has put together stronger numbers so far, completing 152 of 208 passes for 1,734 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Grunkemeyer, like Mendoza, is a transfer from the Big Ten.
The Hokies and Yellow Jackets kick off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
Virginia Tech then heads to Clemson on Saturday, Oct. 24, for a game set for either 7:00 p.m. or 7:30 p.m. ET on either ESPN or ESPN2.
In Other News...
Virginia Tech Suddenly Has A Kicking Battle Fans Did Not Expect
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What makes it more uncomfortable for Virginia Tech is that the uncertainty is not limited to field goals. The Hokies are also dealing with concerns at punter, where senior Nathan Totten has not given the staff the kind of average distance it wants. For a team trying to settle into a season, those issues can ripple quickly, and the next few practices will say plenty about whether Virginia Tech can steady special teams before it starts costing games. [Read more 🡒]
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Virginia Tech was picked ninth in the ACC preseason poll, a position that puts some pressure on the Hokies to prove they belong higher once games start counting. The womens team drew a more modest forecast as well, landing sixth in the preseason projection without any players earning spots on the All-ACC teams, which leaves both programs with a clear early-season backdrop: respect for a few key names, but plenty to prove overall. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Techs Transfer Class Is Already Defining The Hokies Season
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The impact has not been universal, though, and that is part of what makes the group so important to follow. Some arrivals have carved out meaningful roles, others are still working into the mix, and a few have yet to show up in game action at all. Virginia Techs season has turned into a rolling evaluation of how far this revamped roster can go, and the answer may depend as much on the players it added as the ones it kept. [Read more 🡒]