Virginia Tech heads to Berkeley on Saturday looking to answer its first loss of the season, and SP+ expects the Hokies to do it convincingly.
After a 35-33 defeat to Pitt in Lane Stadium, Virginia Tech is no longer sharing the top spot in the conference picture the way it was before Friday night. Pitt, now 2-0 and tied with Miami and Clemson, also owns the head-to-head edge after the result.
The matchup in California comes against a Golden Bears team that has had an uneven run through the first five games. Cal opened with a 45-24 loss to UCLA, then responded with a 21-18 win over Syracuse and a 49-7 rout of Wagner.
But the next two weeks brought setbacks against Clemson, 24-10, and UNLV, 39-31. In that UNLV game, starting quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was injured and did not return.
Sagapolutele’s season has had flashes, but the numbers have been choppy. He has thrown for 1,180 yards and eight interceptions, and his season quarterback rating of 47.4 ranks 95th nationally on ESPN.
Virginia Tech’s passing game has been on a much sharper track. Ethan Grunkemeyer has piled up 1,446 passing yards, which ranks seventh in the FBS, and he’s added 11 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.
His quarterback rating of 79.7 sits No. 23 in the FBS. Against Pitt, Grunkemeyer put together a career-best 434-yard outing, even though he also threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles.
The metrics lean hard toward the Hokies. SP+ has Virginia Tech as a 13.7-point favorite and gives it an 80% chance to win. Bill Connelly’s projection calls for a 33-19 final and also backs Tech against the spread.
Virginia Tech’s setback against Pitt unfolded after the Hokies jumped ahead 14-0, only to watch the Panthers rip off a 35-10 surge. Still, Tech clawed back with a nine-point rally sparked by a Noah Chambers safety and a Davion “FatRat” Brown touchdown catch, the first score of Brown’s college career. The game came down to fifth-year kicker John Love’s 36-yard field goal attempt, which was ruled no good.
Had that kick gone through, Virginia Tech would have opened 5-0 for the first time since 2005. Even in defeat, though, the Hokies stayed in the fight despite a minus-four turnover margin and not forcing a takeaway for the third straight game.
Virginia Tech and Cal are set for Saturday, Oct. 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
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Virginia Tech's ACC Title Hopes Now Hinge On One Brutal Reality
Virginia Tech walked out of Pittsburgh with the kind of loss that lingers, one that hardly reflected the box score but still counts all the same. The Hokies outgained Pitt by 204 yards and still fell 35-33, undone by four turnovers and a missed 36-yard field goal as time expired, a finish that left their unbeaten mark gone and their spot in the ACC picture much less secure.
Even so, the path to the conference title game is not closed, just narrowed to a maze of future results and tiebreakers that now matter every bit as much as what Virginia Tech does on the field. Pitt, meanwhile, has its own concern after starting quarterback Mason Heintschel was lost for the season with an ACL injury, a blow that could shape the Panthers' role in the race from here. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Still Has A Bowl Path Fans Wont Ignore
Virginia Techs loss to Pitt changed the conversation around the postseason, but it did not shut the door on a solid bowl landing. The Hokies still have multiple projection paths in front of them, with some outlets sending them to the Sun Bowl against Arizona and others leaving them in the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando, a reminder that the rest of the schedule still has real weight.
The margin for error is thinner now, especially after a game in which Virginia Tech actually outgained Pitt but got burned by turnovers and a missed field goal. With Clemson and SMU still ahead, those matchups will go a long way toward determining whether the Hokies can push toward eight or nine wins and improve their postseason position before the selections finally settle. [Read more 🡒]