Virginia Tech walks into Berkeley with a couple of numbers that tell the whole story: the ACC’s sack leader and one of the worst turnover margins in the country. Those two strengths and weaknesses are headed straight for each other Saturday.
The Hokies are 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the ACC, while Cal comes in at 2-3 and 1-1. It’s Virginia Tech’s first game in Berkeley, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m.
ET on the ACC Network. And if the matchup plays out the way the numbers suggest, there’s a real chance the Hokies can control it on both lines.
The most obvious place to start is on the ground. Virginia Tech has not looked like a runaway rushing team lately, and the past month hasn’t offered much reason to expect a breakout.
The sophomore has 455 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s been under 50 in three of his four games against FBS teams. Tech ran for 65 against Pitt.
The line behind him is also thinner now. Four offensive linemen are out: starting left tackle Justin Terry, Lucas Austin, Roseby Lubintus and Brody Meadows. Sixth-year guard Montavious Cunningham, who didn’t play against Pitt, isn’t on the report.
Even so, this looks like a spot where the Hokies can run it. Cal is allowing 187.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 121st in the FBS, and opponents are averaging 5.2 a carry. UCLA ran for 277 on the Bears, and Clemson had 257.
Cal’s own ground game hasn’t offered much help either. The Bears average 95.0 rushing yards, which is 133rd nationally, and they haven’t gotten to 120 against an FBS opponent.
Adam Mohammed has 336 of Cal’s 475 rushing yards, but he is doubtful with a left knee injury. Carter Vargas is out.
Without Mohammed at UNLV, Cal ran 24 times for 69 yards, and Ashten Emory had 48 of them. Virginia Tech gives up just 87.4 rushing yards per game, 14th in the country.
That sets up a long night for the Bears if they fall behind the chains. Virginia Tech leads the ACC with 18 sacks, and senior end Aycen Stevens and sophomore Cortez Harris have more than half of them with 5.5 and five, respectively. The caveat is that 12 of those sacks came against VMI and Old Dominion, and the Hokies have not piled up more than three against a power-conference team.
Still, Cal’s protection has not held up when it has had to chase games. Nine of the 10 sacks the Bears have allowed came in their three losses. A team that can’t run and converts just 34.7% of its third downs is going to spend a lot of time in third-and-long.
That remains true regardless of who lines up at quarterback. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is still questionable, and On3 reported Friday night that his status won’t be decided until Saturday. If he can’t play, Colorado State transfer Jackson Brousseau would start.
The most volatile part of this game may be the one that swings it fastest: turnovers. Virginia Tech is minus five in turnover margin, tied for 123rd in FBS, with nine giveaways and four takeaways.
The ball has already hit the ground 18 times in Tech’s five games, with eight by the Hokies and 10 by opponents, and Virginia Tech has recovered four. It has lost seven of its own eight. That kind of stretch is hard to sustain over a full season, and the Hokies are due for a few more breaks.
Cal has been loose with the football too. Six of the Bears’ eight giveaways have come in their three losses.
The one player who could change that dynamic is safety Kingston Lopa, who has five of Cal’s seven interceptions. He is questionable as well, with his status also set for a Saturday decision.
There’s another quarterback note on the other sideline that matters here, too. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw 136 passes without an interception before Pitt, and he has 11 touchdowns against two interceptions this season. The first four games look more like who he is than last Friday did.
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Virginia Tech Let Another Winnable Road Game Slip Away
Virginia Tech spent another afternoon chasing a road result that felt within reach before slipping out of its grasp, falling 25-20 at California for a second straight loss. James Franklin pointed to the same kinds of self-inflicted issues that have been hanging around the Hokies, from penalties to missed chances, in a game that had enough openings for Virginia Tech to leave with something more.
The frustration only deepened because the details around the loss kept stacking up in the wrong direction. Virginia Tech again failed to force a turnover, making it four games in a row without one, and the kicking game also left points behind as John Love missed two field-goal tries. It was the kind of night that left the Hokies looking at a winnable road game and seeing too many small mistakes adding up to a bigger problem. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Tech Let Another Winnable Game Slip Away Late
Virginia Tech had every chance to leave with a road win, but the finish turned into another painful lesson in how thin the margin can be in college football. Cal pulled out a 25-20 victory after scoring the winning touchdown in the final minute, turning a game that had been there for the taking into a frustrating missed opportunity for the Hokies.
The late sequence only sharpened the sting. Virginia Tech could not cash in on key chances when it mattered most, and Cal kept hanging around long enough for its offense to make one last push in the fourth quarter. Jackson Brousseau helped steady that comeback, and the Hokies were left to sort through another game that slipped away despite having control points within reach. [Read more 🡒]