With every Division I team having at least 17 games under its belt, the NCAA Tournament picture is starting to take shape. According to simulations from Bart Torvik, 17 teams are already considered locks - sitting at a 100% chance to make the Big Dance. That means it would take a complete collapse over the final seven weeks to keep them out.
But beyond those sure things, there’s a fascinating middle tier of teams fighting for position - or survival. Let’s break down six of the more intriguing résumés in the mix right now, highlighting what’s working, what’s not, and what it’ll take to punch a ticket to March.
Alabama - Bracket Projection: No. 5 Seed
Alabama’s 13-5 record doesn’t jump off the page - until you dig deeper. Nate Oats has never been one to shy away from a challenge, and this year’s schedule is Exhibit A. The Crimson Tide have racked up eight wins against Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponents - a mark only eight other programs can beat right now.
What’s boosting Alabama’s stock even more is the NCAA’s relatively new metric: Wins Above Bubble (WAB). It’s only the second year the selection committee is using it, and it heavily favors road wins - something Oats clearly understood when he scheduled games at St.
John’s and at the United Center against Illinois. Both of those victories were worth over 0.8 WAB apiece, which is significant.
Yes, Alabama has taken some lumps - blowout losses to Purdue and Arizona, plus a home stumble against Texas. But thanks to the nation’s toughest schedule to date, this team is battle-tested and sitting 16th in WAB.
They’re flawed, especially on the boards, which could be their undoing in March. But if you’re looking for a team that’s earned its stripes, Alabama’s right there.
📊 Grade: B+
Indiana - Bracket Projection: OUT
It’s almost February, and Indiana still doesn’t have a signature win to hang its hat on. The Hoosiers are just 1-4 on the road and a rough 1-7 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. Early-season wins over Marquette and Kansas State were supposed to help - but Marquette has cratered in the Big East, and Kansas State is barely treading water in the Big 12.
The résumé metrics are sounding the alarm. Indiana sits 58th in WAB, which is well outside the comfort zone.
Predictive models like KenPom (38th) and Bart Torvik (26th) still see some upside, but it’s hard to square that optimism with what we’ve seen on the court. This team just doesn’t have the high-end athleticism to compete with the elite right now.
The good news? Indiana has the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the Big Ten, so there are chances to climb. But time is running out, and Darian DeVries’ squad needs a spark - fast.
📊 Grade: D
North Carolina - Bracket Projection: No. 8 Seed
UNC’s résumé is solid - but it’s missing that extra gear. The Tar Heels are 4-4 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, with no bad losses dragging them down.
But road losses to SMU, Stanford and Cal have put them in a tricky spot. Those are games a tournament team is expected to win.
Their best wins - a road victory over Kentucky and a home triumph over Kansas - are doing a lot of heavy lifting. But if UNC wants to avoid the dreaded 8/9 matchup in the tournament, they’ll need to find a way to win consistently away from Chapel Hill.
Metrics-wise, they’re in decent shape: 27th in NET, 25th in WAB, and sitting in the low 30s in both KenPom and Torvik. But decent won’t be enough come Selection Sunday. This team needs to find its edge - and soon.
📊 Grade: B-
Virginia Tech - Bracket Projection: Last Four In
Virginia Tech’s season has been a roller coaster - and they’ve somehow stayed on the rails. The Hokies are 15-5 and undefeated in overtime games (4-0), including a triple-overtime thriller against rival Virginia that went from disaster to instant classic.
A couple of breaks didn’t go their way - like Stanford’s Ebuka Okorie going supernova late, or SMU’s Boopie Miller hitting a halfcourt buzzer-beater - but the Hokies have also caught some lucky bounces. Wednesday’s road win over Syracuse was another résumé booster, and it helps offset the lack of love from the NET (49th) and KenPom.
Still, Virginia Tech has seven wins against Quad 1 and 2 teams, zero bad losses, and a respectable strength of schedule. If they can navigate the next eight games - many of which figure to be tight late - with a winning record, Mike Young should be dancing again for the first time since 2022.
📊 Grade: B
TCU - Bracket Projection: First Four Out
Trying to figure out TCU right now is like trying to catch smoke. One minute they’re knocking off Florida and Wisconsin at a neutral site - earning a combined +1.37 WAB - and the next, they’re losing to New Orleans in a Quad 4 game that’s going to haunt them all season.
The Horned Frogs are 60th in WAB, 46th in the NET, and 52nd in KenPom. They’re hovering around the bubble, and it’s not hard to pinpoint why. They’ve had big-time chances - against Michigan, BYU, and Kansas - and let all three slip away.
That’s the kind of stuff that sticks with a selection committee. If TCU ends up on the wrong side of the cut line, those missed opportunities are going to sting.
📊 Grade: C-
Washington - Bracket Projection: OUT
Washington has been fighting uphill since the start of Big Ten play - and it’s starting to look like the hill might be too steep. Injuries have played a role, with Wesley Yates and Desmond Claude both banged up. Zoom Diallo and Hannes Steinbach have been warriors, but it hasn’t been enough.
The Huskies opened conference play with a brutal eight-game stretch and couldn’t capitalize. Back-to-back home losses to Michigan and Michigan State were especially damaging - both were Quad 1 chances that slipped away.
Washington is 1-6 in Quad 1 games and doesn’t have any bad losses (Seattle U on the road is still a Quad 2). But the clock is ticking, and the résumé metrics aren’t doing them any favors: averaging 70th in the results-based models, 50th in KenPom, and 56th on Bart Torvik.
The path is narrow, and unless they go on a serious run, it’s looking like the curtain may close without a March appearance.
📊 Grade: D-
Bottom Line:
The margin for error is shrinking fast.
For teams like Alabama, the heavy lifting is mostly done - now it’s about staying sharp. For others like Indiana, TCU, and Washington, the time for moral victories is over.
The next six weeks will separate the contenders from the pretenders - and every possession, every road win, and every close-out game is going to matter.