Despite Loss to Miami, Roy Hibbert Sees Final Four Potential in UNC
The North Carolina Tar Heels didn’t ride the wave from their emotional win over Duke into Tuesday night’s matchup with Miami. Instead, they ran into a Hurricanes team that had other plans, dropping a 75-66 decision on the road. That’s UNC’s fourth ACC loss of the season - not exactly the kind of follow-up performance you want after taking down your biggest rival.
Still, there’s reason for optimism in Chapel Hill, and it didn’t come from what happened on the court - it came from what was said off it.
During a segment on CBS Sports Network, former Georgetown standout and current analyst Roy Hibbert made a bold claim about the Tar Heels: “I think they could be a Final Four team.” It’s not just lip service either - Hibbert laid out exactly why he sees UNC as a team built for March.
Big Men, Big Impact
Hibbert’s analysis started where you’d expect it to - in the paint. The Tar Heels’ frontcourt duo of Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar has been giving opposing coaches headaches all season.
Wilson brings a rare blend of athleticism and scoring punch, while Veesaar stretches the floor on offense and protects the rim on defense. Together, they give UNC a modern big-man combo that can both defend the paint and space it on the other end.
But Hibbert didn’t stop at the bigs. He pointed to something that often goes overlooked when we talk about tournament-ready teams: discipline.
The Trimble Factor and Defensive Discipline
“If Seth Trimble can continue to hit shots - timely shots - whenever he can,” Hibbert said, “and the addition that UNC does not foul, especially down the stretch, their lack of fouling, I think, could really help them.”
Trimble’s shooting has been a swing factor for UNC. When he’s knocking down perimeter looks and attacking with confidence, it opens up the floor for Wilson and Veesaar to operate. But Hibbert’s point about fouling might be the most underrated aspect of the Tar Heels’ profile.
UNC commits just 14.7 personal fouls per game - that’s in the 96th percentile nationally, according to CBBAnalytics.com. In other words, they defend without giving away freebies. That’s a big deal in March, when games often come down to a few possessions and every point matters.
The Heels also allow just 15.6 free throw attempts per game, and their opponents have a free-throw attempt rate of just 24.5 percent - second-best in the ACC behind only Duke. That kind of discipline, paired with a block-to-foul ratio of 0.24 (83rd percentile), shows a defense that contests shots without bailing opponents out.
Analytics Still Playing Catch-Up
Despite Hibbert’s praise, not everyone is sold. ESPN Analytics actually favored Miami heading into Tuesday’s game, and KenPom currently has UNC sitting at 29th by net rating. That’s not exactly elite territory, especially for a team with Final Four aspirations.
Part of the hesitation likely comes from the youth on this roster - two freshmen in the starting lineup - and the heavy reliance on Veesaar to anchor the defense. That kind of inexperience can be a liability in high-pressure tournament settings. But Hibbert, a former big man himself, clearly sees something in this group that numbers might not fully capture.
What’s Next for the Tar Heels?
The loss to Miami stings, no doubt. But in the bigger picture, UNC still has the tools to be dangerous in March.
They’ve got size, shooting, and - maybe most importantly - discipline. If Trimble continues to develop as a shot-maker and the frontcourt duo keeps dominating both ends, this team could be a tough out when the brackets are set.
Roy Hibbert’s belief in the Tar Heels might not be backed by every metric, but it’s grounded in basketball fundamentals - and sometimes, that’s what matters most come tournament time.