ESPN’s Football Power Index has Virginia sitting at 10-2 as of Tuesday, with one game standing out as the closest thing to a coin flip: the trip to Virginia Tech.
Now that every team has at least one game on the books, the projections have been recalibrated using what Virginia and its opponents have already shown. The result is a week-two game-by-game outlook that leaves the Cavaliers heavily favored in most spots, with only a few matchups drawing real attention.
Friday’s game is the easiest call on the slate. The source material makes clear that the result “was never and will never be in doubt.”
West Virginia needed everything it could get to slip past Coastal Carolina at home, and that kind of performance doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially with Virginia described as being far better than the Chanticleers. The Mountaineers’ defense was exposed, and that could matter in the neutral-site game in Charlotte.
The Delaware number also looks conservative. The Blue Hens have not played an FBS opponent yet, though they do have Vanderbilt coming up this week. The projection currently leaves room for a blowout to push Virginia’s chances closer to 97%.
Virginia’s outlook against Florida State has moved up, and the reason is pretty straightforward. Florida State’s defense gave up well over 500 yards of total offense to SMU, and the Seminoles’ offense wasted four Mustang turnovers and a missed field goal. The source notes that Florida State owns the worst ACC record over the past two seasons and does not appear to be a real conference threat.
The Homecomings matchup with Syracuse has stayed steady. The Orange handled a weak FCS opponent, but they still have to show they can measure up against a true Power Four team.
Virginia’s projection against SMU has slipped a bit. The Mustangs had some rough stretches, but they still got out of Florida State with a win and remain in the ACC’s No. 2 tier along with Virginia and a few others.
Duke’s number may be a little too generous. The Blue Devils were strong on defense and merely average on offense against Tulane, and Virginia is expected to present a very different challenge. The source even suggests the 27.3% figure might come down later.
Wake Forest is another road spot where the Cavaliers are favored, though maybe not as comfortably as the number suggests. At nearly 63%, Virginia could be getting a slight boost there, because the Demon Deacons are the kind of team that can spring ugly surprises. Virginia learned that lesson last year and, according to the source, won’t take them lightly this time.
The California projection is also flagged as too low. Near 91% does not feel right against an ACC team with a promising quarterback and enough talent to bother anyone, even after a mediocre defensive showing and a few offensive mistakes.
North Carolina’s upset of TCU changed the outlook there, and Virginia’s chances took a noticeable hit as a result. Even so, the Cavaliers should still be around a 76% favorite, given the Tar Heels’ ongoing offensive issues.
And then there’s Virginia Tech. The Hokies are the home team, but the number is only 0.7% away from flipping them into underdogs in what the source calls a crucial rivalry game. That says plenty about how Virginia is being viewed right now, and the Cavaliers might be favored there in a month or two.
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