Virginia’s path the rest of the season has gotten a lot shakier in ESPN’s latest Football Power Index, even after the Cavaliers beat Syracuse. The win over the Orange did not move the projection needle much, and after the loss at Florida State, the overall picture still points to a 6-6 finish.
That means the remaining schedule is where everything gets sorted out, and the odds are shifting in all directions. A few opponents have started to look tougher.
A few others have backed off some. Either way, FPI still sees Virginia walking a fine line the rest of the way.
The toughest immediate number may be the one attached to SMU. The Mustangs are coming off a bye and will be at home, and they’ve been a problem in ACC play since joining the league. SMU has gone 8-1 at home in ACC games, which helps explain why Virginia is being treated as such a long shot in that matchup.
Duke also enters the stretch looking different after its first loss of the year, a surprise defeat at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils have leaned heavily on Nate Sheppard, who has been carrying an otherwise ordinary offense with huge performances. On the other side of the ball, Duke’s defense may be getting by with limited depth.
Wake Forest has turned into one of the most difficult games left on Virginia’s slate. What was once a routine-looking conference matchup now carries major weight, because the Demon Deacons have emerged as one of the ACC’s better teams and could be the clearest threat to Miami in the league title race. For Virginia, that game could end up carrying season-defining consequences.
California remains hard to pin down. The Golden Bears’ lopsided loss to UCLA looks a little more understandable now that the Bruins are ranked No. 12, but the defeat at UNLV still stands out as one of the more damaging results for a Power Four team. Cal has steadied itself with a win over Virginia Tech and sits at 2-1 in ACC play.
North Carolina is another team Virginia has to keep close tabs on. The Tar Heels gave No.
3 Notre Dame a real fight before falling 37-26, and they’ve already picked up road wins over TCU and Pitt. They’re also not flawless - the collapse at Clemson proved that - but they have enough quality to make things uncomfortable for Virginia again, just like they did last season.
Virginia’s outlook also got a slight boost after Virginia Tech dropped its second straight ACC game. The Hokies have been hurting themselves with mistakes all season, and the slide has continued once conference play started. Still, any trip to Lane Stadium brings its own pressure, and that environment is never something the Cavaliers can afford to dismiss.
In Other News...
Virginia Fans Have A New Name To Watch In This Weeks Poll
Virginia high school football turned in another busy stretch from Oct. 8-10, and the latest batch of standout performances gives fans around the commonwealth plenty to sort through. The weekly High School On SI Virginia Football Player of the Week poll is once again packed with eye-catching names after a slate of games that produced big passing nights, explosive receiving totals and plenty of momentum-shifting plays across the state.
The field includes several players whose efforts stood out well beyond the final scores, with Ryan Turpin and Xavier Price among the headliners from a statistical standpoint. Voting runs through Oct. 11, and the winner will be revealed in next weeks poll, so Virginia fans have a short window to make their choice among a deep list of performances that made this one of the more competitive weeks yet. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Fans Get A Timely Look At A Key Starter This Week
Fans heading to Dairy Market on Tuesday will get a useful midseason glimpse at one of Virginias steadier pieces up front when Coachs Corner with Tony Elliott airs from Charlottesville. The weekly radio show has become a spot for fan interaction, and this weeks edition also includes ticket and merchandise giveaways, giving supporters a chance to hear directly from the program while checking in on the offensive line.
Among the guests is graduate transfer Makilan Thomas, who came to Virginia from Arkansas State and has quietly settled in as a regular starter this fall. For a Cavaliers team still working to build consistency, the timing matters, especially with Thomas having opened all six games on the line after missing last season with an injury. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Faces A Real Road Test Against A Flawed ACC Threat
Virginia is heading into a tricky ACC road trip with enough flaws of its own to keep the spotlight on the details. The Cavaliers have dealt with penalties, injuries and uneven play on defense, and they still have not won away from home this season. They are also coming off a game against Syracuse that left several injuries to monitor, adding another layer of uncertainty as they prepare for a matchup that asks a lot of their coverage unit and run defense.
SMU has looked beatable despite its 4-2 start, with close calls against weaker opponents and a turnover problem that has kept a few games tighter than expected. The Mustangs have had extra time to sort through those issues after an early bye week, which makes Virginias task even less forgiving. For a Cavaliers team trying to steady itself on the road, this is the kind of test that can expose whether the progress is real or still more promise than proof. [Read more 🡒]