Virginia’s bowl path is still hanging around, but it’s a narrow one.
At 4-5, Tony Elliott’s team is back in the kind of late-season scramble that defines so much of college football. The Cavaliers have dropped off in recent weeks, yet they still have a shot at reaching a bowl for only the second time in Elliott’s tenure. That would mark a sharp turn from his first three seasons, when UVA missed out, before last year’s run to the ACC Championship game left the program one win short of the College Football Playoff.
Now the math is simple: Virginia needs to win two of its final three games against Cal, North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
The latest projections mostly point in the same direction. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura and CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford both slot Virginia into the Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl on Mon., Dec. 28 at 2:00 p.m.
ET on ESPN, with Army as the opponent. The Black Knights are 5-3 and still need one more win to become bowl eligible.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach, though, left Virginia out of the bowl picture entirely.
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer also has the Cavaliers in the Military Bowl, but with a different matchup. In Fischer’s projection, Virginia would face North Texas, the AAC leader. Fischer describes the Mean Green as a team that has done a fantastic job of reloading under new head coach Neal Brown, making them a tough draw in a postseason game.
The road to get there is not exactly forgiving. Virginia’s best chance to grab one of those needed wins looks like next week against California.
The Golden Bears are 3-6 and have been one of the ACC’s biggest disappointments, though they did knock off Virginia Tech earlier this season at home. This time, they have to travel to Charlottesville.
North Carolina is a different kind of problem. The Tar Heels are 4-4, but their record doesn’t tell the whole story.
They jumped out to a 17-0 lead against Clemson before a long weather delay, lost in overtime to Syracuse, pushed No. 1 Miami to the wire and also played well against Notre Dame.
That one figures to be a battle.
Then comes the rivalry game with the Hokies, and that’s the toughest assignment left. Virginia Tech is already bowl eligible in year one under James Franklin and still has faint ACC Championship hopes alive, which only raises the difficulty level for UVA.
Even with the projections showing some belief, the outlook is shaky. The offense has been a mess, the injury report hasn’t helped, and the defense hasn’t been able to sustain its best play. The honest read is that Virginia may win next week against Cal, but North Carolina and Virginia Tech both look like tougher asks right now.
I would love to be wrong, but I don’t see it this season.
In Other News...
Virginia Faces A Real Test Against Arkansas Pressure And Length
Virginias first real measuring stick of the season arrives in Washington, D.C., where the Cavaliers meet Arkansas in the Capital Showcase after both teams opened with wins. Virginia handled Drexel in its opener, while Arkansas took care of UA-Pine Bluff, but this one is more about style than records. The Razorbacks bring pressure and length, the kind of defensive look that can quickly expose whether a young offense is ready for a step up in competition.
For Virginia, the challenge is as much about composure as execution, because Arkansas can turn a clean possession into a scramble in a hurry. The Cavaliers will have to sort through a series of difficult individual battles on the floor while also dealing with the pace and physicality that come with a team built to disrupt. It is an early test, but one that should say plenty about where Virginia stands before the schedule gets any less forgiving. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Gets An Early Test Fans Will Want To Measure
No. 9 Virginia will get an early chance to see where it stands when Northeastern comes to John Paul Jones Arena on Nov. 6, a non-conference matchup that should give fans a first real measuring stick for Ryan Odoms group. The Cavaliers have some continuity with returning players in the mix, plus a fresh batch of newcomers, and the opener will arrive with the usual November questions about how quickly all the pieces fit together.
Virginia already owns a 2-0 edge in the all-time series, with the Huskies providing a familiar opponent in a building where the Cavaliers have handled them before. The game will also carry the added attention that comes with an early-season home date on the schedule, and it should offer an immediate look at how Odoms team is settling in after a recent stretch that has raised expectations around Charlottesville. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Needs A Sharper Showing Before The Arkansas Test
Virginia opened the season with a win over Drexel, and now the Cavaliers get a quick chance to clean up some early rough edges before the schedule stiffens. Ryan Odom liked the overall dominance he saw in the opener, but there was still enough slippage to leave room for a sharper performance, especially with Northeastern coming in off a loss to Boston University.
The Huskies bring a different look than Drexel, and Virginias frontcourt size should matter again if the Cavaliers can use it to control the paint and keep their offense efficient. The other key is perimeter defense, with Northeasterns Rashad King standing out as the main threat to track while Virginia tries to build momentum heading toward the Arkansas test. [Read more 🡒]