Virginia football’s bowl picture looks a little different after Week 2, and the range of possibilities is wide.
The most common move from ESPN and CBS analysts has been to slide the Cavaliers down a notch, from the Pop-Tarts Bowl or Gator Bowl tier to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. That shift comes after No.
24 Louisville made a loud early statement by nearly upsetting No. 9 Ole Miss, then got even more buzz despite the loss.
SMU’s escape at Florida State has also helped reshape the early outlook around the league.
But not everyone is backing Virginia into a standard bowl slot. On3’s Andy Staples projected the Cavaliers all the way into the CFP, a prediction that might sound aggressive but isn’t built on thin air. Virginia’s schedule is manageable, and the team just blew out NC State, one of the stronger opponents on the slate.
The updated ESPN Football Power Index has Virginia finishing 10-2, with the second loss coming at Virginia Tech. In that projection, the Cavaliers would be only 0.6% underdogs in Blacksburg.
The forecast here is different: a Virginia win in Blacksburg and an 11-1 finish, which would give the program its most regular-season wins ever. Even then, the lone loss would matter just as much as the win total.
That’s where the playoff debate gets interesting. If Virginia gets to 11-1 but the defeat comes at ranked SMU, would that résumé still be strong enough for the CFP, especially if the Cavaliers then lose the conference championship game to Miami? Virginia doesn’t get to choose that it misses the Hurricanes, Louisville, Pitt, Clemson and Georgia Tech on the schedule.
It also can’t control what happens before or after its games. Still, an 11-1 record in a Power Four league should be enough to put Virginia in the at-large conversation.
And if the Cavaliers do make the CFP, the road likely runs straight into an SEC heavyweight. Texas could be one of the teams to land the No. 6 seed, which would put Virginia against one of the league’s deepest groups.
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