The picture around Virginia keeps shifting, but the big forecast hasn’t moved much: ESPN’s Football Power Index still sees the Cavaliers finishing 10-2 overall and 8-1 in the ACC. That would be enough to put Virginia in the conference title game, provided three of Miami, Clemson, Pitt and SMU each drop at least one or two more ACC games.
What has changed is the texture of the schedule. Matchups that looked manageable not long ago - especially Duke and Wake Forest - now read much differently, with both games carrying far more weight in the ACC race.
Florida State remains one of the league’s most difficult teams to pin down. The Seminoles took a painful home loss to SMU, then pushed Alabama on the road and came a few plays from pulling the upset. That makes this week feel like a real hinge point for both Florida State and Virginia.
Syracuse is in a far darker spot. Quarterback Steve Angeli has struggled.
A lot. His interception total nearly matches his touchdown total, and Syracuse's season might be over before it started.
The Orange are in desparate need of a win, more so than just about any other team in the Power Four.
SMU has also become a much more interesting test than it looked a few weeks ago. The Mustangs have looked more like an eight-win team than a Playoff team so far.
As a result, this game has gone from near-impossible to a true toss-up. Virginia has an increasingly decent chance to steal the upset in Dallas and take pole position in the ACC title race.
Duke has been one of the league’s best surprises. The Blue Devils’ offense has kept rolling despite a massive portal exodus, and the defense has made major gains. Right now, Duke looks capable of running the table and getting back to Charlotte.
Wake Forest has joined Duke near the top of the list of pleasant surprises in the ACC. The Demon Deacons nearly upset No.
4 Miami and then knocked off No. 16 Louisville.
That makes the Halloween matchup look a lot more dangerous for Virginia than it did earlier.
Cal still may be getting too much respect here. The Golden Bears have stumbled out of the gate, but there is too much talent on this offense for Cal to be mediocre.
North Carolina under Bill Belichick has been elite on defense. As usual, the questions are on offense. Can North Carolina keep pace with Virginia?
Even more surprising, Virginia’s odds keep rising in the rivalry game against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech as a home underdog is a great surprise - but Virginia does have a loaded roster with the ability to steal a win in Blacksburg, Va.
In Other News...
Beau Pribula Is Giving Virginia One Huge Reason For Belief
Beau Pribula has given Virginia exactly the kind of early-season lift a team hopes to get at quarterback, and the numbers are hard to ignore. Through the first four weeks of the college football season, he has sat among the national leaders in completion percentage, passer rating and passing touchdowns, giving the Cavaliers a steady presence at the position and helping them build momentum while the schedule has stayed manageable.
Still, the fuller picture will come into focus soon enough. Pribulas efficiency has been aided by a low interception total and by being pulled early from three of Virginias first four games because of lopsided leads, which has kept the sample a little cleaner than it may look at first glance. The competition has been mixed so far, and the real test of how much belief he can truly inspire will come when Virginia starts lining up against ACC defenses. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Still Commands Respect Before Virginia Even Arrives
Before Virginia even gets to Tallahassee, Tony Elliott is already treating Florida State like the kind of opponent that can test every layer of a team. The Cavaliers head coach pointed to the Seminoles consistent talent and the challenge of playing at Doak Campbell Stadium, framing the matchup as one against a historically strong program in a difficult road environment. For Virginia, it is the kind of game that demands attention to detail and a willingness to play fast and physical from the opening snap.
Elliott also made it clear he believes his team belongs in this kind of setting. He said Virginia is prepared for the challenge and understands the value of facing top competition, even when the assignment looks daunting on paper. For a program still trying to build momentum, the trip offers more than just another conference game, since it puts the Cavaliers in front of a standard they can measure themselves against in real time. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Faces A Passing Test That Could Expose Its Secondary
Florida States passing game arrives with plenty of credibility even if the record does not. Mike Norvell is in his seventh season guiding the Seminoles, and a matchup with Virginia brings another chance to see how the Cavaliers handle a receiver group that can stress a defense in different ways. The Noles are 2-2 after losses to ranked teams SMU and Alabama, but the aerial attack still looks like the part of the offense most likely to create problems for opposing secondaries.
Virginia has reason to treat this as more than a routine conference test. The Cavaliers own receivers have flashed enough recent production to keep this from feeling like a one-sided talent gap, but the challenge on the other side is obvious: a Florida State passing game that can make one coverage mistake look much larger than it is. For Virginia, the question is not just whether it can hold up for a few drives, but whether its secondary can stay organized long enough to survive a full evening against a real downfield test. [Read more 🡒]