Virginia comes out of its bye week with a matchup that feels like a chance to steady the ship, and the Cavaliers should find a favorable path against a Cal team that has struggled all season.
Both programs have been underwhelming, but the contrast in where they are right now matters. Virginia opened the year looking like an ACC contender, yet the offense has stalled and the defense has not matched last season’s standard. Cal has been even harder to trust, with first-year head coach Tosh Lupoi’s team needing to win out just to keep bowl hopes alive.
That’s why this one leans toward Virginia, even if the Cavaliers have not exactly inspired confidence lately. The better bet is on the coaching staff and on a team that has already shown it can win games. Cal, meanwhile, looks like a group that may be running out of gas.
Virginia should also have a real edge on the ground. Cal has allowed 184 rushing yards per game, which ranks third-worst in the ACC, and that sets up a big opportunity for Middlebrook. He has only topped 100 rushing yards once this season, and that came in the last game we saw him play, against Duke three weeks ago.
Middlebrook also had time to rest. He missed the blowout loss to Wake Forest and then had the bye week to recover, which makes this a strong spot for his best outing of the season.
There’s also a chance for Virginia’s defense to make life difficult for Cal quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagopolutele. He has thrown six interceptions this season, while UVA has picked off eight passes. Those are both middle-of-the-pack numbers in the conference, but the Cavaliers should be able to pressure him into mistakes.
In the end, Virginia has enough running game and enough defense to control this one and win by a margin.
In Other News...
Virginia Just Passed Its First Real Road Test
Virginias first real road test of the season came with the kind of early trouble that can expose a young team, but the Cavaliers handled it well enough to leave College Park with an 87-83 win over Maryland at XFINITY Center. The victory kept Virginia unbeaten at 5-0 and stretched its recent success in the series to 10 of the last 11 meetings, a useful marker for a team still trying to establish its identity away from home.
What made this one stand out was the way Virginia kept finding answers as the game tightened. Sam Lewis delivered a career-best scoring night, while Thijs De Ridder, Johann Grnloh and Chance Mallory all chipped in to help steady the Cavaliers through a tense finish. For a team that had not yet been tested in this kind of setting, it was the sort of result that can carry real weight later in the ACC race. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Got The Road Win Fans Wanted But Exposed A Bigger Concern
Virginia left Maryland with the road win fans had been waiting for, an 87-83 result at Xfinity Center that offered a clear snapshot of both the promise and the messiness of this group. The Cavaliers leaned on their core players to steady things when the game tightened, and for stretches they looked like the kind of team that can survive a tough night away from home.
Still, the box score also pointed to the bigger issue lurking beneath the result. Virginia had trouble at the free throw line and gave the ball away too often, problems that could have turned a good victory into a frustrating one if the final sequence had gone differently. The win counts, especially on the road, but it also left the Cavaliers with a reminder that cleaner execution will matter when the margins get smaller. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Still Has One Big Problem After Much-Needed Cal Win
A much-needed win finally gave Virginia a little breathing room Saturday night at Scott Stadium, where the Cavaliers rolled past Cal 36-7 to snap a 1-4 skid. The defense did plenty of the heavy lifting, turning the game with big plays and helping Virginia get back on track after a rough stretch that had put the season in a precarious spot.
Still, the offense did not exactly erase every concern. Virginia struggled to find rhythm early and has now topped 15 points only twice since Sept. 27, leaving the Cavaliers at 5-5 overall and 3-4 in ACC play with rivalry games looming as the real test of where this season goes next. The win was necessary, but the bigger questions around consistency on offense are still waiting to be answered. [Read more 🡒]