Virginia hasn’t opened a season 3-0 since 2019, but ESPN’s Football Power Index thinks that drought is about to end.
FPI projects the Cavaliers to beat West Virginia on Saturday night, giving Virginia an 84.1% chance to come away with the win. The model is even more bullish on the season as a whole, slotting Tony Elliott’s team for an 11-1 finish in its 2026 outlook.
That prediction comes despite West Virginia arriving at 2-0 from the Big 12. The Mountaineers have gotten the job done, but the résumé so far hasn’t exactly screamed powerhouse. They slipped past Coastal Carolina before rolling UT Martin.
Virginia’s start has looked a lot sharper. The Cavaliers handled a talented ACC opponent and then blew past Norfolk State, all while riding the momentum of a strong 2025 season. West Virginia, by contrast, was one of the Big 12’s worst teams last year.
The numbers have lined up with Virginia so far. FPI gave the Cavaliers a 68% shot against NC State, and they responded with a 34-8 win. It also pegged them at 99% against Norfolk State, and Virginia delivered a 59-3 rout.
Still, FPI isn’t a perfect crystal ball. West Virginia was given an 85.8% chance to beat Coastal Carolina and wound up needing a one-score win, a result that may have dragged down its outlook against Virginia.
On paper, this is a tricky matchup in spots. West Virginia has been an elite rushing team early in 2026, and its offense could give Virginia some problems. But the Mountaineers haven’t shown much defensively, which leaves the door open for the Cavaliers’ offense to keep humming.
A lot of that pressure falls on quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., who gives West Virginia a dual-threat option capable of extending plays and creating something out of nothing. He’s dangerous as a runner, not all that different from NC State’s CJ Bailey, and Virginia did a strong job keeping Bailey contained in the pocket.
Hawkins is also still getting settled in Morgantown after time at Oklahoma behind captain quarterback John Mateer. As a starter, he hasn’t yet seen a team with the kind of experience and talent Virginia is bringing to the table.
Beau Pribula offers the opposite profile for the Cavaliers: a quarterback who has already gone through plenty of SEC tests and is one of dozens of graduate starters on what is described as the most experienced roster of any Power Four team.
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