Virginia gets Florida State at a good time, but not an easy one.
The Seminoles have changed a lot under Luke Loucks, and the early returns were strong. After nearly a decade in NBA assistant roles, Loucks came back to his alma mater with NBA-style ideas and Florida State bought in. The result was an aggressive team that pushed Duke all the way to one shot from the ACC Tournament.
That said, the matchup in Charlottesville looks different from last year’s trip to Tallahassee, when No. 15 Virginia escaped with a three-point win. This time, the Cavaliers should have more going for them - the home crowd, more continuity and a better overall fit.
The individual battles tilt that way, too.
At point guard, Virginia has the edge with Mallory. His 2025-26 line - 0 GS, 36 GP, 24.1 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.7 RPG, 42.2% FG, 34.5% 3PT - stacks up well against Robinson’s 2025-26 at Missouri: 19 GS, 33 GP, 27.0 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 41.0% FG, 31.4% 3PT. Robinson may be the better defender, but Mallory brings a tougher offensive puzzle, thanks to his ankle-breaking agility and speed.
On the wing, Dixon looks like the safer bet over Taylor. Dixon’s 2025-26 numbers at UC Irvine were 35 GS, 35 GP, 30.4 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 3.6 RPG, 43.0% FG, 38.5% 3PT.
Taylor posted 2025-26 marks at UNC-Asheville of 30 GS, 32 GP, 34.6 MPG, 18.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 5.0 RPG, 45.3% FG, 28.1% 3PT. Taylor can score, but he needs the ball in his hands and has not shown much from deep.
He has also played only two Power Four opponents in his career. Dixon may not have the same ceiling, but he is the more reliable option.
Virginia also has an advantage at the other guard spot with Lewis. His 2025-26 season - 35 GS, 36 GP, 25.4 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 1.4 APG, 3.6 RPG, 45.5% FG, 40.3% 3PT - compares favorably to Abaev’s 2025-26 at Cincinnati: 12 GS, 24 GP, 15.9 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 1.1 APG, 2.9 RPG, 33.5% FG, 25.7% 3PT. Abaev should be interesting in his first season with Florida State, but Lewis brings the better floor and the better ceiling.
In the frontcourt, De Ridder should have the upper hand over Rancik. De Ridder’s 2025-26 production - 36 GS, 36 GP, 27.7 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 1.6 APG, 6.2 RPG, 50.8% FG, 35.7% 3PT - is stronger than Rancik’s 2025-26 at Colorado: 26 GS, 29 GP, 28.3 MPG, 12.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 5.6 RPG, 40.4% FG, 33.1% 3PT.
Rancik was a big portal get for Florida State, with several Power Four programs involved, and he could be productive. But he is not on De Ridder’s level.
The center matchup also leans Virginia’s way. Grunloh’s 2025-26 line was 36 GS, 36 GP, 21.0 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 0.6 APG, 5.2 RPG, 53.3% FG, 35.0% 3PT.
Ponder, a seven-footer who weighs 285 pounds, is a massive presence and was ranked by 247Sports as the No. 4 center nationally and No. 3 player in Virginia among 2026 recruits. Even so, Grunloh should have the edge because of his experience, versatility and much better speed and scoring ability.
Florida State has plenty of intrigue after Loucks’ overhaul, but there are still real questions. Three-point shooting, defense, transition defense and shot distribution all loom large. That makes the Seminoles look like a middle-tier ACC team sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
For now, the edge belongs to Ryan Odom and Virginia.
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