Virginia heads into Saturday’s trip to 14th-ranked Wake Forest with the kind of resume that makes optimism hard to come by. The Cavaliers are 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the ACC, riding a two-game losing streak and still searching for their first road win.
Wake Forest, meanwhile, is 6-1 and 4-1 in the league, has won four straight, and has been flattening people lately. The Deacons are also coming off a bye, which only sharpens the challenge.
And yet, there are a few cracks Virginia can point to if it wants to imagine an upset.
One starts with Gio Lopez, a quarterback the Cavaliers have already had success against. Last season, Virginia picked him off twice in a 17-16 overtime win over North Carolina.
Lopez was operating in a very different setting then, on a UNC team that labored badly in Bill Belichick’s first season as coach. Now he’s in a much better situation and thriving, with 17 touchdown passes and only one interception.
Still, Wake Forest’s rushing attack is only middle-of-the-pack in the ACC, so if Virginia can generate the kind of pass rush it has too often lacked, it may have a chance to rattle him into a mistake or two.
The Cavaliers also have a path through the air because Wake’s pass defense has been just ordinary. The Deacons have managed only two interceptions and have given up 10 touchdown passes in seven games.
Miami’s Darian Mensah was close to flawless against them in their lone loss, going 30 for 34 with three touchdowns. Beau Pribula doesn’t have a Malachi Toney to lean on, but if he can stay upright, avoid turnovers and make use of his tight ends, Virginia should be able to move the ball.
Then there’s the simplest factor of all: Virginia has nothing to lose. With the current formula not paying off, Tony Elliott could decide to shake things up.
That could mean turning to backup Eli Holstein, though Elliott has not indicated he will. It could also mean a more aggressive approach with trick plays on offense or unusual blitz packages on defense.
The harder part is why Virginia might not have much of a shot.
Wake Forest’s offense is rolling. Lopez is right there in the conversation for the ACC’s best quarterback behind Miami’s Mensah, and receiver Carlos Hernandez has been a problem for everyone, with 49 catches for 720 yards and four touchdowns.
The Deacons have scored at least 30 points in all six of their wins, and their last three victories - over Stanford, N.C. State and California - came by an average margin of nearly 39 points.
Virginia’s defense took a step forward in tackling last week against Duke, but it still had the one breakdown that mattered most on the Blue Devils’ game-winning option pass. The Cavaliers are hoping starting safeties Brandyn Hillman and Ethan Minter can return from injury, but even that may not be enough to slow Wake’s pace.
The matchup on the ground is another problem for Virginia. The Cavaliers have built their offense around running the ball and managing the clock, and Jekail Middlebrook came off a career-high 117 yards against Duke.
But Wake Forest ranks third in the ACC against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. If Virginia falls behind the chains, the offense could spend the afternoon stuck in neutral.
And unlike some teams that might be vulnerable to a post-bye lull, Wake has every reason to stay locked in. The Deacons are at home, rested, and still chasing a spot in the ACC championship game for the first time in five years.
Win out, and they could set up a rematch with Miami. That’s not a team likely to come out flat.
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Virginia Faces A Brutal Road Test With One Huge Question
Virginia heads into one of its toughest road assignments of the season with a chance to steady itself against No. 14 Wake Forest, a team that has stacked up well on both sides of the ball in the ACC. For the Cavaliers, the setting alone adds to the challenge. Recent trips have not been kind, and the North Carolina road environment has been especially unfriendly as they try to find a way back into rhythm away from home.
The larger concern is whether Virginia can get enough going offensively to make this trip competitive at all. October has been a slog on that side of the ball, and the Cavaliers have not shown much margin for error when the game tilts toward a sharper opponent. Wake Forest now has a quarterback in Gio Lopez who has grown into the job after transferring in, and Virginia is left trying to solve a familiar problem on a field where answers have been hard to come by. [Read more 🡒]
Chance Mallory Is Giving Virginia Fans A Reason To Dream Bigger
Chance Mallorys first year at Virginia already gave the Cavaliers reason to believe they have something special at point guard, and now the national recognition is starting to match the buzz. The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame put Mallory on the preseason watch list for the 2027 Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award, the honor given to the top point guard in Division I mens basketball.
For Virginia, it is another sign that Mallorys rookie season turned heads beyond Charlottesville, even before the real heavy lifting of the year begins. He also picked up preseason All-ACC second-team honors, which only adds to the sense that the Cavaliers may have a backcourt centerpiece worth tracking all season as the award race develops through fan voting and the selection process. [Read more 🡒]