The Virginia Cavaliers are headed to Charlotte with history in their sights.
After a convincing win over Virginia Tech on Saturday night, UVA locked up a spot in the ACC Championship Game on December 6. The victory capped a 10-2 regular season for the Cavaliers, including a 7-1 mark in conference play-good enough to secure the top seed in a chaotic ACC landscape.
And chaotic might be putting it lightly. Saturday’s results created a five-way logjam for second place in the ACC standings. Duke, Miami, Pitt, SMU, and Georgia Tech all finished 6-2 in conference play, but it’s Duke-despite holding the worst overall record of the group at 7-5-that will take the field opposite Virginia for the conference crown.
That’s right-UVA vs. Duke for the ACC title.
Not exactly the matchup most fans would’ve circled back in September, but here we are. And make no mistake, Virginia comes in as the favorite.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are 2.5-point favorites, with odds sitting at -144 to win outright and -122 to cover. The over/under is set at 58.5 points, which feels a touch aggressive considering how UVA games have played out lately.
The Cavaliers have quietly become one of the most reliable teams against the spread this season, going 8-4 ATS. They easily covered the 8.5-point line against Virginia Tech last weekend and, just two weeks prior, dismantled Duke by 17 points-on the road, as 4.5-point underdogs. That performance helped snap a midseason stretch where UVA failed to cover in three of four games and re-established them as a team that not only wins but wins with confidence.
A big part of that resurgence? The defense.
Virginia’s defense has been lights-out down the stretch. Since late September, they’ve turned games into grind-it-out affairs.
In fact, no UVA game has hit the over since their double-overtime thriller against Florida State on September 26. That trend speaks volumes about how this team is built to control tempo and win with discipline on both sides of the ball.
And when we talk about the Cavaliers’ recent dominance, we have to go back to that earlier matchup with Duke-the very same team they’ll see in Charlotte. That game was a statement.
The UVA offense exploded for 540 total yards, with a perfectly balanced attack: 316 through the air, 224 on the ground. It was the kind of complete performance that reminds you just how dangerous this team can be when everything clicks.
Running back J’Mari Taylor was the star of that show, racking up 133 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. His ability to gash the Blue Devils’ front seven played a huge role in keeping the offense humming and the defense well-rested.
If Virginia can replicate that formula-leaning on a stingy defense and a balanced, explosive offense-they’ll have every chance to walk out of Bank of America Stadium with their first outright ACC title. And if that happens, it won’t just be a trophy they’re bringing home. A win would likely punch the Cavaliers’ ticket to the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history.
No pressure, right?
But this team has shown it can handle the big moments. Now, with everything on the line, they’ve got one more shot to prove they belong among college football’s elite.