For Virginia, the question hanging over this season is the same one that has followed the program for years: has it really made up any ground on Duke?
The Cavaliers have had their moments. The 72-63 win over the Blue Devils in the 2014 ACC tournament final still stands out, but those kinds of results have been rare.
Even in Virginia’s 2019 national championship season, Duke handled both regular-season meetings. Pete Gillen once put the matchup into blunt terms: "Duke is Duke.
They're on TV more than 'Leave it to Beaver.' "
That was long before every game was on television, but the point still lands. Duke has usually been the standard, and Virginia has usually been trying to catch it.
This year, though, Virginia has enough back to make the conversation interesting. Ryan Odom kept every potential returning player from last season’s 30-6 team and added a group of transfers that gives the Cavaliers a preseason ranking in every Top 25 poll. The roster looks deeper, older and more complete than it did a year ago.
The problem is that Duke also loaded up, and the Blue Devils still look like the bigger, more imposing team.
Last season’s meetings were not close for long stretches. Duke rolled Virginia 77-51 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in January, then survived 74-70 in the ACC tournament championship game. That gave the Blue Devils six wins in the last seven matchups, and it reinforced a familiar truth: Virginia was good, but Duke was better in both the regular season and the postseason.
The NBA draft only widened the gap. Duke saw three players go: power forward Cameron Boozer went No. 3 overall to Memphis, guard Isaiah Evans went No. 33 to Brooklyn, and forward Maliq Brown went No. 44 to San Antonio. Virginia lost backup center Ugonna Onyenso, who was picked 53rd by Houston and later traded to Detroit, along with guards Malik Thomas, Jacari White and Dallin Hall.
Still, Odom did the part he could control. He held the roster together, and Virginia returns 59 percent of its scoring, the highest rate in the ACC by a wide margin. Thijs De Ridder and Sam Lewis both averaged double figures, and Chance Mallory, who scored 9.3 per game, should see a bigger role as a starter.
The newcomers matter too. Jurian Dixon, Christian Harmon, Jan Vide, Kalu Anya and Nolan Adekunle give the Cavaliers more options, and the early signs suggest Dixon and Anya can help on defense, where Virginia had some shaky stretches last season - including the first Duke game.
There is also a clear experience edge. Players such as De Ridder, Lewis, Harmon, Anyu and Fine bring the kind of strength and basketball IQ that can matter against younger, more gifted teams.
But Duke’s ceiling is still higher. Jon Scheyer signed the nation’s top-ranked high school class, and it includes three players ranked among the top 12 prospects: power forward Cameron Williams at No. 2 overall, point guard Deron Rippey Jr. at No. 10 and small forward Bryson Howard at No.
- He also added 7-footers Maxime Meyer and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, the son of former Georgetown big man Ruben, plus transfer guard John Blackwell, who averaged 19 points per game last season at Wisconsin.
That group joins a returning core led by big man Patrick Ngongba, small forward Dame Sarr and Cayden Boozer, Cameron’s twin. Williams, Ngongba and Sarr are projected as 2027 first-round NBA draft picks, and Williams could become Duke’s third straight freshman national player of the year after Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer.
Scheyer may have his biggest and deepest team yet, and at this point there’s no ambiguity about who owns the program. As he enters his fifth season, Duke is clearly his team.
Virginia’s roster has its own bright spots. De Ridder and Johann Grunloh have drawn pro attention, and Odom’s group should be comfortable in its system, especially on defense. The Cavaliers will have that cohesion working for them, along with experience that Duke’s younger roster may not match right away.
But Virginia may not see the Blue Devils until later in the season, when Scheyer has had time to sort through all that talent and size. By then, Duke could be rolling. The Blue Devils can throw at least three 7-footers - Williams, Ngongba and Boumtje Boumtje - at De Ridder, and they will almost certainly make life hard on Mallory, Virginia’s only proven ball-handler.
So yes, Virginia will have a chance against plenty of teams this season. That part is not in doubt. The tougher question is the old one, and it still points straight to Durham: Duke remains the measuring stick, and the Cavaliers still have a long way to go before they can say they’ve truly caught up.
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