ESPN’s Football Power Index has Virginia penciled in for a solid 2026, but not quite the kind of season that would satisfy a team coming off an ACC Championship Game appearance.
The model projects the Cavaliers to finish 9-3, which would put them sixth in the ACC and No. 32 nationally. ESPN also gives Virginia nearly an 85 percent chance to make a bowl game, a figure that ranks fourth among ACC teams.
The game-by-game numbers are where things get interesting. ESPN sees Virginia opening 1-0, giving the Cavaliers a 68 percent shot against NC State. That feels a little low, especially with Virginia’s experience, even if the Wolfpack are expected to keep it closer than the projection suggests.
From there, the numbers get even more lopsided. Virginia is listed at 99 percent against Michigan State, a mark that hardly needs much explanation. The Spartans would have to pull off one of the biggest upsets in sports history to win that one.
West Virginia comes in at 73 percent for Virginia, though that may be too cautious. The Mountaineers finished third-worst in the Big 12 last season, while Virginia finished first in the ACC. West Virginia did bring in portal help, including running back Cam Cook, but the Cavaliers still look like the stronger side by a wider margin than ESPN’s model gives them.
Delaware is another spot where Virginia’s number seems conservative. ESPN has the Cavaliers in the mid-90s there, and that tracks with the Blue Hens’ struggles against Power Four opponents last year. Delaware is on the rise, but this feels like a matchup where Virginia should be comfortably in control.
The Florida State game is one of the toughest to sort through. ESPN is high on the Seminoles, who rank fifth in the ACC in this year’s FPI and one spot ahead of Virginia.
The road trip to Tallahassee matters too, and Virginia is listed as an underdog. Still, the Cavaliers probably deserve to be closer to a 45 percent chance than the model suggests.
Syracuse is another tricky one because of how many unknowns still surround that program. Fran Brown is an underrated coach, Steve Angeli was rolling before his season-ending injury and the Orange have a new defensive coordinator. Virginia’s 79 percent probability looks fair for now, though that could shift as the season develops.
The SMU matchup stands out as one of the biggest games on the ACC calendar. ESPN gives Virginia only a 29 percent chance, but that feels too harsh for a meeting between conference contenders. With the Mustangs at home, Virginia should still be the underdog, though probably closer to the high 30s or even low 40s depending on how both teams look early.
Duke’s number makes sense. The Blue Devils lost a lot this offseason, but they still have sophomore running back Nate Sheppard, who should be one of the ACC’s best backs. Manny Diaz has also shown he can get more out of less, which makes Virginia’s 69 percent edge reasonable.
Wake Forest is another game that looks about right. The Demon Deacons bring a tough defense and already beat Virginia once in 2025, handing the Cavaliers their only home loss. Even if Virginia has the better roster, Wake Forest’s style makes this a potential trap.
California is where ESPN may be overdoing it in Virginia’s favor. The Golden Bears have the feel of a team ready to break through, with an ascending quarterback and a respected defensive mind leading the way.
Virginia should still be favored, just not by as much as the model says. A range in the 60 to 65 percent area seems more believable.
North Carolina is one of the biggest misses on the list. The Tar Heels were among the ACC’s worst teams last season, especially on offense, and Virginia should be favored by more than 80 percent in Charlottesville. An upset there would be a major surprise.
The regular season ends in Blacksburg, where ESPN gives Virginia a 46 percent chance against Virginia Tech. That number reflects the reality of Lane Stadium and the rivalry setting. Virginia has the talent, experience and production to argue for a better shot, but the Cavaliers also haven’t won there since the 20th century, and the Hokies should be good enough at home to make this a true toss-up.
Overall, a 9-3 season would still count as a strong year for Virginia. But with the most experienced roster in the country and an ACC Championship Game appearance already on the résumé, sixth in the league would feel like a step back.
A 10-2 finish is in the range too, especially if Virginia can win at Florida State. Unless the Seminoles clean up some of their roster issues by then, the Cavaliers may end up favored in every game except the road trip to SMU.
In Other News...
Virginia Enters Fall Camp With One Major Backfield Question
Virginias backfield picture for 2026 is suddenly a lot deeper, and a lot less settled, after the Cavaliers added Peyton Lewis, Jekail Middlebrook and Solomon Beebe through the transfer portal. Those arrivals join Xavier Brown, giving the staff a group with enough experience and skill variety to sort through as fall camp approaches and the offense starts to take shape around the run game.
The biggest question is how the touches will actually be divided once the pads come on. Lewis and Middlebrook look like the leading candidates to handle the early-down work, Brown appears positioned for a more specific pass-catching role, and freshman Davis is still in the developmental stage behind them, which leaves Virginia with options but no clear answer yet on who will emerge as the most reliable weekly workload back. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Just Made Its Biggest Bet Since Last Seasons Breakthrough
Virginia spent the offseason trying to protect the gains it made in last seasons breakthrough, and that meant keeping some continuity where it could while reworking several spots on the roster. The Cavaliers held onto offensive line coach Orck after Terry Heffernans departure, a quiet but important move for a program trying to keep its front from slipping as the rest of the roster turns over.
The bigger test is how quickly the new pieces come together. Virginia lost Mitchell Melton to the NFL and had to reload up front with multiple defensive linemen, while Devin Neals exit opened the door for a new safety in Hillman from Michigan. The backfield is also being reshaped with Lewis, Middlebrook and Beebe, giving the Cavaliers a different look at running back as they head toward 2026. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Just Got A Rival Endorsement That Changes Beau Pribula Stakes
Beau Pribulas move to Virginia already gave Tony Elliott a quarterback with a winding college path and real starting stakes, but the backdrop got a little more interesting at ACC Kickoff in Charlotte. The former Penn State signal-caller, who spent time at Missouri before landing in Charlottesville, is now the presumptive starter for the Cavaliers, giving Virginia a new face to build around as it heads into the season.
James Franklin, once Pribulas coach at Penn State and now at Virginia Tech after his firing in October 2024, was on the same stage in Charlotte and will be part of the Commonwealth Cup buildup from the other sideline. With Virginia and Virginia Tech set to meet in Blacksburg on Nov. 28, Pribulas latest chapter now carries an added layer of rivalry and familiarity that both programs will be watching closely. [Read more 🡒]