ESPN’s Football Power Index is buying into Virginia for 2026, and the numbers back up the buzz around Tony Elliott’s group.
The Cavaliers are projected to go 9-3, which would leave them tied for sixth in the ACC and sitting at No. 32 nationally. ESPN also gives Virginia an 84.8% shot at making a bowl, the fourth-best mark in the conference.
That overall forecast fits the expectations around a veteran roster heading into the fall, but the game-by-game projections show where ESPN thinks the real tests are - and where the Hoos should handle business.
The opener comes Aug. 29 against NC State, and the model gives Virginia a 68.0% chance to win at Scott Stadium. That’s one of the tougher home games on the schedule, even with Virginia entering the season with one of the country’s most experienced rosters after reaching the ACC Championship Game a year ago.
Last season’s matchup was a tight one, and Virginia pulled it out while missing linebacker Kam Robinson, its best defender. Robinson is targeting a return for this game after tearing his ACL last November, which would be a major boost for the Wahoos.
ESPN’s edge for Virginia here comes down to experience up front and the depth of the running back room.
The next game on the board is Sept. 11 against Norfolk State, and the FPI is nearly as lopsided as it gets: a 99.0% win probability for Virginia. Anything less would have been a shock, and the model is clearly treating this one as a near-lock in Charlottesville.
In Other News...
Which Virginia Transfers Are Ready To Change Everything This Fall
Fall camp for Virginias 2026 football team opens Wednesday, and the Cavaliers are already carrying a different kind of optimism into August. With NC State looming in the season opener, the transfer class is going to be under a bright spotlight, especially the quartet of Pribula, Middlebrook, Hillman and Flores, all of whom arrive with the kind of past production and projected roles that can reshape a roster quickly if the fit is right.
What makes this group so intriguing is how varied the upside is. Middlebrook brings a receiving profile that should give Virginia a reliable option in key passing situations, Hillman looks built to add toughness and stability to the backfield, and Flores has the kind of speed that can change how defenses have to play the Cavaliers. Pribula, meanwhile, sits at the center of the whole operation as camp begins, and the early weeks should tell Virginia plenty about how close this transfer class is to changing the look of the offense. [Read more 🡒]
Virginias Defense Has One Major Linebacker Concern Before The Opener
Virginias defense is heading toward the opener with a familiar kind of August concern, and it starts in the middle of the linebacker group. Kam Robinsons recovery from the ACL injury he suffered late last season has become the key variable for a unit that does not have much margin for error, especially with several players still trying to carve out roles and a handful of younger options expected to be pressed into action.
Tony Elliott has sounded encouraged about the position overall, but the bigger picture remains unsettled because the Cavaliers need someone to stabilize the spot quickly. Landon Danley and Maddox Marcellus are among the players in the mix, while the staff may also need one or two unproven depth pieces to make a real leap before the season gets rolling. [Read more 🡒]