ESPN’s latest Football Power Index gave Virginia fans a little something to smile about before the 2026 season even gets rolling.
The Cavaliers are sitting one spot ahead of Virginia Tech in the new FPI rankings, with UVA at No. 32 and the Hokies right behind at No. 33.
That edge comes with a projected 8-4 record for Virginia, listed at 7.7-4.4, and an 84.7% chance to reach six wins. Virginia Tech is projected to finish 7-5, or 7.0-5.1, with a 76.4% chance to get to six victories.
That’s a notable twist, especially after plenty of offseason chatter leaned toward Virginia Tech. The Hokies have been widely credited with “winning” the offseason thanks to their work in high school recruiting and the transfer portal, and James Franklin has drawn plenty of attention to Blacksburg. But ESPN’s numbers say the early edge belongs to UVA.
Virginia Tech did land a strong transfer portal class at the top end, but Virginia’s group is described as more balanced, with starting-caliber and rotational pieces spread across the roster. That depth appears to matter in ESPN’s projection.
The biggest separator, though, is experience. Virginia is ranked No. 1 in college football in returning production heading into 2026, and that kind of continuity is a major reason for the optimistic outlook around Tony Elliott’s team.
The Cavaliers are bringing back almost their entire offensive line, including Makilan Thomas and Monroe Mills after their season-ending injuries in 2025. With those two back, there’s a real belief that new Virginia offensive line coach Joey Orck could oversee the ACC’s best unit up front. The same confidence extends to the running back room, defensive line, and secondary.
For now, the early signs all point in Virginia’s favor as the 2026 season approaches. And in a rivalry like the Commonwealth Clash, that kind of preseason edge matters.
In Other News...
Virginia Offense Faces A Summer Of Pressure And Unanswered Questions
Tony Elliott came away from spring practices feeling good about the work Virginia put in, and now the Cavaliers are shifting into the next phase of their offseason with summer workouts and the NCAA-allowed training days that help set the tone for August. The schedule is already taking shape around a season opener against NC State on Aug. 29, a game that was moved from Brazil to Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, giving Virginia a familiar setting for a matchup that will arrive with plenty of attention.
The bigger issue, though, is what the offense looks like when the ball starts getting snapped for real. Virginia has to replace major production after key contributors moved on, including quarterback Chandler Morris and running back JMari Taylor, who accounted for a combined 36 passing and rushing touchdowns, while receiver Trell Harris is also gone. The summer will be about sorting out who fills those roles and how quickly the unit can answer the questions that spring only began to frame. [Read more 🡒]
Virginia Heads To ACC Kickoff With One New Pressure Point
Virginias trip to ACC Kickoff in Charlotte on July 15 arrives with a little more intrigue than usual, even after a season that gave Tony Elliotts program some momentum to build on. Elliott and several key players will be on hand as the Cavaliers try to keep sharpening the offensive chemistry that comes with a wave of new transfers while also sorting out how the defense will hold up after losing contributors up front.
The biggest questions are still the kind that tend to linger until fall camp, when Virginia can get a better read on its wide receiver group and defensive front before the opener against NC State. There is optimism around the roster, but there is also a fresh pressure point for a team trying to turn last years progress into something more durable, and the next few weeks should offer a clearer sense of how much of that burden falls on the newcomers. [Read more 🡒]
Tony Elliott Just Brought Long Awaited Clarity To Virginias QB Battle
Virginias quarterback picture has been murky long enough that any sign of direction matters, and Tony Elliott finally offered one this week. Beau Pribula, the Missouri transfer, is the player the Cavaliers are leaning toward as they head into 2026, a notable development for an offense that has been waiting to define itself around a clear signal-caller. Pribula brings athleticism that gives Virginia a different kind of threat, with the ability to matter in both the run game and the passing game.
The timing also tells you this is more than a casual offseason mention. Elliott said the staff had already settled on a direction by the start of summer, based on the body of work they had seen, which gives the move some real weight inside the program even if the public-facing details are still being sorted out. For Virginia, the appeal is obvious: a quarterback who can change the geometry of the offense, force defenses to account for movement and create a different kind of stress than the Cavaliers have had under center in recent seasons. [Read more 🡒]