Duke heads to Scott Stadium on Friday night with a clear edge in the matchup that matters most: whether Virginia can slow down Nate Sheppard.
Both teams are trying to bounce back after ACC losses in Week 7. Duke dropped a 24-20 decision to UNC, while Virginia came up short against SMU, 23-13. Now they meet in Week 8 with both looking to get back in the win column.
Sheppard is the engine of the Duke offense, and he’s doing damage in more ways than one. On the ground, he’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 820 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
He’s also been a factor as a receiver, leading the Blue Devils with 259 receiving yards and adding four touchdown catches. Virginia has to find an answer for him if it wants to stay in this game.
The numbers point toward Duke as the stronger side. The Blue Devils are 50th in net adjusted EPA per play, while Virginia sits 82nd. Duke is also 66th in net success rate, compared with 79th for the Cavaliers.
This is where the matchup gets ugly for Virginia. Duke leans on its run game, and the Cavaliers are dealing with a defense that has struggled badly against the run, ranking 117th in opponent EPA per rush and 130th in opponent rush success rate. That kind of profile sets up a difficult night against a back like Sheppard.
That’s why the pick here is Duke to win outright, even with Virginia at home.
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