Less than a week from the start of Vanderbilt men’s basketball season, the big question around Nashville is pretty straightforward: how high can this roster climb, and how far can it fall?
The Commodores open Nov. 2 against Bellarmine, and head coach Mark Byington is heading into his third season with a group that looks very different from a year ago. Vanderbilt returned only three players from last season, though two of them matter plenty: point guard Tyler Tanner, who is being discussed as potentially the best player in college basketball, and starting forward Chandler Bing.
Around them, Byington and his staff used the transfer portal to reshape the roster. Bangot Dak came in from Colorado, along with Berke Buyuktuncel, Ace Glass and T.O.
Barrett. The freshman group adds another layer with guards Ant Brown Jr. and Gabe Nesmith.
Based on the roster and what has shown up in a few exhibition games, Vanderbilt appears to have real depth in both the frontcourt and backcourt.
The schedule gives the Commodores 32 regular-season games, split between 14 nonconference matchups and 18 SEC contests. That makes the range of outcomes worth sorting through now.
At the low end, Vanderbilt’s season could get bogged down if the new pieces need too long to click. Chemistry could stall early, and some of the close games - including matchups with Memphis and Wake Forest - could become a little more stressful than expected.
A floor scenario would also include a freshman class that contributes, but not enough to swing the team into the SEC’s upper tier. The staff would want more immediate help, but if that doesn’t come, Vanderbilt might struggle to become a true threat in the league.
There’s also the shooting piece. Last season, Tyler Nickel gave Vanderbilt a reliable outside threat, and replacing that kind of production is one of the biggest questions hanging over this team. If nobody emerges in that role, the offense could feel very different.
Even in that kind of outcome, the nonconference slate still looks manageable. The Commodores should still handle Memphis, Wake Forest and UCF at home. A trip to Ohio State would be much tougher in a worst-case setting, and the game out west against California could also get tricky.
SEC play would bring the heat, as expected. In a floor scenario, wins at Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M and Alabama would be hard to come by. Home games against Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and maybe even Auburn could also be difficult.
Still, even the downside isn’t disastrous. In the worst-case outlook, Vanderbilt would still be strong enough to finish in the middle of the SEC pack, somewhere around an 8-10 or 9-9 league record. That would leave the Commodores with a floor of 21-11, or maybe 22-10, and an NCAA Tournament bid.
The ceiling, though, is the kind of season that turns heads quickly.
That version starts with Tyler Tanner making another major leap, enough to become a finalist and possibly the winner of the National Player of the Year Award. It would also mean the newcomers and freshmen settle in fast rather than spending half the season trying to find each other.
In that best-case script, Ace Glass becomes the team’s clear-cut three-point weapon. Ant Brown and Gabe Nesmith grow into starting-caliber backcourt options. Jayden Leverett and Jackson Sheffield give Vanderbilt productive minutes off the bench in the paint.
If all of that clicks, the Commodores could run the nonconference slate without a loss, finishing 14-0 before the SEC grind begins. From there, even in a dream scenario, there would still likely be a few road losses in league play.
But the end result would still be massive: a 28-4 regular season, a shot at the top of the SEC Tournament, and a seed somewhere in the No. 1 or No. 2 range for the NCAA Tournament. If everything broke right, Vanderbilt could even be in position to make a run to Detroit.
Whatever the exact ceiling or floor ends up being, the expectation is clear enough. This roster has the talent to reach the NCAA Tournament. The first step comes Monday against Bellarmine.