Saturday’s trip to FirstBank Stadium brings Alabama back into the same building where Vanderbilt’s last meeting with the Tide turned into one of the program’s defining nights. That 40-35 win ended a 40-year losing streak, and the question hanging over this one is whether Jared Curtis can author anything close to that kind of moment.
The short answer from the prediction desk: probably not.
Alabama will be without starting quarterback Keelon Russell, and the Crimson Tide also had to make the trip from Tuscaloosa to Nashville by bus after what the source described as a Trump Administration fuckup kept them from taking a charter flight. In theory, that could matter. In practice, the confidence level around Vanderbilt is all over the map.
Andrew VU ‘04 doesn’t think the missing quarterback and the travel wrinkle are enough to swing the game. He pointed to Alabama’s talent elsewhere on the roster and landed on a Tide win, even while admitting he hopes he’s wrong. His pick: Alabama 24, Vanderbilt 13.
Patrick Sawyer sees a Vanderbilt team that took a step forward against Mississippi State, but he’s not ready to project that same formula against a much tougher opponent. He noted that the defense was sharp in the win, holding the Bulldogs to 12 first downs and limiting them to only four drives longer than three plays.
Offensively, Vanderbilt moved the ball reasonably well, averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 3.1 yards per carry, but the problem came once the offense crossed midfield and stalled out. Brock Taylor’s six field goals and one touchdown were enough to beat Mississippi State, but Sawyer made clear that won’t be a winning blueprint against Alabama.
He also dug into the matchup numbers and found a few reasons for concern and a few reasons Vanderbilt might hang around. Alabama is the worst team in the SEC at giving up contact behind the line of scrimmage on designed runs at 31%, while Vanderbilt is fourth-worst at 28%.
The Tide are also 114th in yards per attempt allowed through the air at 7.9, though they are stronger against the run, ranking 16th at 3.02 yards per carry allowed. On offense, Alabama brings a dangerous passing attack at 9.1 yards per attempt and a solid ground game at 4.26 yards per carry.
Keelon Russell is listed as “Probable” on the injury report, which Sawyer said helps explain why the spread sits at 16.5 points. Even so, he isn’t optimistic, though he did note that Austin Mack is expected to start. His final call: Alabama 24, Vanderbilt 13.
Cole Sullivan took a much bolder swing. He brushed past the numbers, said he doesn’t really do numbers anyway, and leaned on history instead.
Vanderbilt’s last home game against Alabama is enough for him to believe another upset is possible. His pick: Vanderbilt 30, Alabama 17.
Tom Stephenson wasn’t buying it. He pointed to Vanderbilt’s win at Mississippi State, but said seven scoring drives and six field goals simply won’t be enough against Alabama. Even if the Commodores get seven chances again, he doesn’t think they’ll have that many opportunities.
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Vanderbilt gets a familiar but far more daunting follow-up this week, hosting No. 3 Alabama at FirstBank Stadium in the first meeting between the programs since the Commodores stunned the Crimson Tide in 2024. The backdrop is different now. Alabama arrives fresh off a win over LSU, while Vanderbilt is coming off a victory against Mississippi State and trying to carry some momentum into one of the toughest matchups on its schedule.
The challenge is made even steeper by the injury situation around the Commodores, who are already thin in key spots on defense and along the line. Losing that kind of depth matters against an Alabama team that can punish mistakes quickly, and it leaves Vanderbilt needing a clean game and a little of the same edge that made last years upset possible. [Read more 🡒]
Mark Byington Wasn't Happy After Vanderbilt's Blowout Win
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