Welcome to Week 10 of the 2026 college football season, and the upset board is loaded again.
Last week, the underdog calls came through in a big way. South Carolina, Iowa State and USC all cashed, and now the goal is to keep that run rolling with another batch of live dogs.
The biggest swing on the slate is Alabama over LSU. There’s just not much reason to be sold on LSU at this point.
The Tigers have piled up points on overmatched opponents, but they still haven’t really taken down anybody of consequence. Their best win may be last week’s 38-17 result against Auburn, and even the Clemson and Texas A&M wins have aged badly.
Now LSU is laying it against an Alabama team that should be healthier coming out of its bye. The way the market is treating LSU suggests it’s one of the nation’s elite teams, and this week should tell us whether that price is real.
Pick: Alabama to win (33% on Kalshi)
Miami over Notre Dame is another spot that stands out. The concern here is Notre Dame’s ability to generate explosive plays against the Canes.
The Irish have been efficient enough on offense for much of the year, but that has come with them avoiding long-yardage situations. That changed in their lone loss to BYU, when they had seven 3rd-and-long reps, and the same issue could show up again this week if early downs get sticky.
Miami’s offense has taken a hit with Malachi Toney out, but the market may be overdoing that adjustment. The Canes still have enough talent to handle the loss.
West Virginia over Texas Tech is the long-shot play, but it comes with a real case. The Mountaineers’ offense has been explosive all season, sitting in the 99th percentile in explosive play rate.
Texas Tech’s defense is solid, but it has been more vulnerable this year with 2025 standouts David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez now in the NFL. Per Game on Paper, the Red Raiders are in the 49th percentile in explosive pass plays allowed.
Texas Tech has the better overall roster, but West Virginia’s offensive profile is unusual enough to make this interesting, especially if the Red Raiders’ offense stalls again. WVU also gets the edge of coming off a bye, while Texas Tech is on its fourth straight game.
Vanderbilt over Mississippi State is mostly a fade of a Bulldogs team that has struggled badly without a healthy Kamario Taylor. Mississippi State has posted negative EPA-per-play numbers in four straight games, and the defense hasn’t offered much help either.
Even Oklahoma was averaging almost 7 yards per play in Starkville a couple of weeks ago. Vanderbilt’s season has been uneven, but the offense can still hit explosive plays, particularly through the air.
That gives the Commodores a real shot here.
Oregon over Ohio State rounds out the list, even if it’s not the showdown anyone expected back in August. Oregon is probably out of the CFP picture, and Dante Moore is done for the year.
Julian Sayin might be, too. Still, the Ducks flashed something last week against Northwestern, especially in a dominant second half, and they look like a different offense when their top wide receivers are healthy.
Ohio State, meanwhile, still doesn’t look settled without Sayin under center. With that quarterback situation hanging over the Buckeyes, this game looks a lot closer than the market suggests.
In Other News...
Mississippi State Has A Prime Chance To Finally Breathe At Home
Mississippi State heads into its next home game with a chance to settle things down after a stretch of uncertainty, and Vanderbilt arrives carrying plenty of its own questions. The Commodores have had trouble getting the ground game going, and their offense has been uneven enough that the quarterback spot has become a weekly storyline. Freshman Jared Curtis has shown flashes in the passing game, throwing for 1,489 yards and eight touchdowns, but the turnovers have piled up and he leads the SEC in interceptions.
For Mississippi State, the timing matters because the defense just turned in one of its better outings and will be looking to build on it in front of a home crowd. Vanderbilts quarterback situation is still unsettled because of AJ Swanns arm injury, and the Commodores have not been able to find much rhythm while trying to piece together the offense around him. If the Bulldogs can keep that pressure on early, they may get the kind of comfortable night at home they have been chasing. [Read more 🡒]
Vanderbilt Heads To Mississippi State With Its SEC Skid Still On The Line
Vanderbilt comes out of its bye week heading to Mississippi State with the same basic mission it has carried through the heart of SEC play: find a way to get back in the win column. The Commodores are still searching for their first conference victory and trying to stop a five-game losing streak, with the extra time off giving the staff a chance to regroup before another road test.
The injury report remains a major part of the buildup, with several players still in question and six already ruled out for the game. Among the absences are Josiah Broxton and Evan Hampton, whose injuries have ended their seasons, leaving Vanderbilt to piece together its depth as it tries to keep the skid from stretching any further. [Read more 🡒]
Vanderbilts Fast Start Faces A New Test After Troubling Injury Update
Vanderbilts season opened with the kind of lopsided win that can settle a team in quickly, a 93-47 rout of Bellarmine that gave Mark Byingtons group an early jolt of momentum. The Commodores now turn to a home date with Wake Forest, and there is at least some historical comfort in the matchup, with Vanderbilt holding a 3-2 edge in the all-time series.
The bigger concern, though, is the news around freshman guard Gabe Nesmith, whose absence already loomed over the opener. Byington confirmed Nesmith underwent surgery and will be sidelined for a couple of months, with the possibility the injury could end his season, leaving Vanderbilt to adjust its guard rotation as the schedule starts to tighten. [Read more 🡒]