Vanderbilt pulled off the kind of finish that turns a sure thing into a collapse people remember for years.
NC State had the game in hand in Nashville, up 31-28 with six seconds left and the ball near its own 10-yard line. ESPN Analytics had the Wolfpack at a 99.9% win probability. Since the start of the last 20 seasons, teams in that spot had been 1,046-1.
Then it all fell apart.
CJ Bailey dropped into his own end zone and tried to run out the final seconds. He could have taken a safer route and given up the safety, or he could have thrown the ball away. Either way, NC State still would have been ahead 31-30.
Instead, Bailey held onto the ball, took a hit and lost it in the end zone. Vanderbilt’s Miles Capers fell on the fumble, and the Commodores escaped with a 35-31 win.
That turned NC State’s place in recent college football history into the wrong kind of exclusive club. The Wolfpack now sit alongside Michigan as the only team in the last two decades to lose from that kind of position.
Michigan’s version came in 2015 against Michigan State, when the Wolverines needed little more than a clean snap to punter Blake O'Neill. Instead, O'Neill mishandled it, then tried to recover and ended up sending the ball into the hands of Jalen Watts-Jackson, who returned it for the winning touchdown.
NC State entered Saturday already carrying an ugly conference loss from Week 1, and the defeat dropped the Wolfpack to 1-2. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, added another wild result to its early-season run, though this one came in far messier fashion than the others.
The Michigan State win in 2015 helped launch a 12-2 season that ended with a Big Ten championship. Michigan finished 10-3 despite the loss, and the result also shaped the division race, since the Wolverines would have been tied with Ohio State if they had held on. But because Michigan had already lost to Ohio State, the Buckeyes would have had the edge for the Big Ten title game and possibly the College Football Playoff spot had that final snap gone differently.
In Other News...
Vanderbilt Just Got The Kind Of SEC Shoutout Fans Never Expected
The SEC Nation crew had plenty to discuss during Auburns primetime meeting with Florida at Jordan-Hare Stadium, especially with the Gators making their first trip there since 2011 and new coach Jon Sumrall getting his first SEC test. But the broadcast briefly took a turn Vanderbilt fans probably never expected, when former quarterback Chase Daniel brought the Commodores into the conversation while laying out a possible path for Florida.
Tim Tebow pushed back right away, and Daniel quickly clarified he meant Vanderbilts surprising 10-win season last year, not some low-end comparison. The exchange stayed light, with the panel laughing it off, but it was still the kind of offhand shoutout that says plenty about how far Vanderbilt has come and how noticeable that rise has become around the league. [Read more 🡒]
Vanderbilt Stunned NC State With A Finish Nobody Saw Coming
For much of the night, Vanderbilt was chasing NC State, waiting for a break that never seemed to arrive. The Commodores had to fight through a late deficit before the game turned on a sequence no one in the stadium likely expected, and the result pushed Vanderbilt to 3-0 while sending NC State to 1-2.
C.J. Baileys late decision to try for an intentional safety turned into a fumble that Vanderbilt recovered, and the Commodores made it count by taking the lead for good in a 35-31 finish. NC State coach Dave Doeren later explained what the play was supposed to be and made no secret of how costly the loss felt, but for Vanderbilt the bigger story was simple: a game that looked close to gone was suddenly theirs. [Read more 🡒]
Vanderbilt Enters Its Toughest Stretch With One Huge Question Tonight
Vanderbilt is about to find out a lot about itself. The Commodores open a 10-game run against power conference opponents with NC State, and the timing lines up with a major move at quarterback, as Clark Lea has turned the offense over to five-star freshman Jared Curtis, who is set for his first career start and will handle the position going forward.
The challenge does not stop there, either. Vanderbilt is also dealing with a growing injury list, with Aaron Bryant, Cole Spence, Jamison Curtis and Jaylin Lackey sidelined, while EDGE Brian Allen Jr. is expected to play. In a stretch this demanding, the quarterback shift is only part of the story, and tonight offers an early read on how much the Commodores can absorb before the schedule tightens even further. [Read more 🡒]