Vanderbilt is about to find out a lot more about itself Thursday night.
After cruising past Bellarmine in its opener, the Commodores now step into a far more revealing matchup against Wake Forest, a team that returns to Nashville for the back half of a home-and-home after Vanderbilt blew it out in Winston Salem a year ago. The rosters on both sides look almost completely different now, and neither program has faced a power-five opponent in a regular season game yet. That makes this one feel like the first true measuring stick for both teams.
The biggest question for Vanderbilt is on the defensive end. Bellarmine’s offense was unusual, with no ball screens in the mix, and Vanderbilt still looked too loose at times.
The Commodores drifted out of position too often, though Bellarmine simply didn’t have the shotmaking or athleticism to make that costly. Wake Forest does.
The Demon Deacons have enough perimeter shooting and enough athletes around the rim to punish mistakes if Vanderbilt isn’t locked in. That’s why the defensive messaging coming out of Monday night centered on being in the right spots and staying there. Thursday will tell whether that message stuck.
Ball security is another major test. KenPom has Wake Forest No. 35 nationally in turnover percentage forced, a number shaped by last season and by its opener against Maryland Eastern Shore, when it forced 18 turnovers. That means Vanderbilt’s guards will be under pressure, and the Commodores will get a real read on how composed their ballhandlers are beyond Tyler Tanner.
Mark Byington has said he feels better about having three capable ballhandlers outside of Tanner, but this game will show what that backcourt actually looks like when the heat is turned up. Ant Brown, TO Barrett and Ace Glass are the names to watch there. They’ll need to protect the ball and keep Vanderbilt organized.
There’s also a talent gap to consider. Vanderbilt spent between three and four times what Wake Forest did on its roster this offseason, and on paper the Commodores should have the better group. Steve Forbes, though, has a way of getting his teams ready to hang around if the opponent is sloppy.
Byington has a young, though experienced, roster that figures to show some rough edges. The real question is whether those cracks are small enough for Vanderbilt’s talent to carry the night anyway. Can the Commodores run enough offense and stay disciplined enough on defense for that to happen?
KenPom projects an 84-69 Vanderbilt win, and the margin could be even larger if the Commodores play to their standard. Wake Forest hasn’t shown much yet in exhibitions or its opener, and Vanderbilt’s roster looks stronger overall. This should be a solid Vanderbilt win, though Forbes has enough to keep his team in the fight if the Commodores aren’t sharp.
In Other News...
Mississippi State Has A Prime Chance To Finally Breathe At Home
Mississippi State heads into its next home game with a chance to settle things down after a stretch of uncertainty, and Vanderbilt arrives carrying plenty of its own questions. The Commodores have had trouble getting the ground game going, and their offense has been uneven enough that the quarterback spot has become a weekly storyline. Freshman Jared Curtis has shown flashes in the passing game, throwing for 1,489 yards and eight touchdowns, but the turnovers have piled up and he leads the SEC in interceptions.
For Mississippi State, the timing matters because the defense just turned in one of its better outings and will be looking to build on it in front of a home crowd. Vanderbilts quarterback situation is still unsettled because of AJ Swanns arm injury, and the Commodores have not been able to find much rhythm while trying to piece together the offense around him. If the Bulldogs can keep that pressure on early, they may get the kind of comfortable night at home they have been chasing. [Read more 🡒]
Vanderbilt Heads To Mississippi State With Its SEC Skid Still On The Line
Vanderbilt comes out of its bye week heading to Mississippi State with the same basic mission it has carried through the heart of SEC play: find a way to get back in the win column. The Commodores are still searching for their first conference victory and trying to stop a five-game losing streak, with the extra time off giving the staff a chance to regroup before another road test.
The injury report remains a major part of the buildup, with several players still in question and six already ruled out for the game. Among the absences are Josiah Broxton and Evan Hampton, whose injuries have ended their seasons, leaving Vanderbilt to piece together its depth as it tries to keep the skid from stretching any further. [Read more 🡒]
Vanderbilts Fast Start Faces A New Test After Troubling Injury Update
Vanderbilts season opened with the kind of lopsided win that can settle a team in quickly, a 93-47 rout of Bellarmine that gave Mark Byingtons group an early jolt of momentum. The Commodores now turn to a home date with Wake Forest, and there is at least some historical comfort in the matchup, with Vanderbilt holding a 3-2 edge in the all-time series.
The bigger concern, though, is the news around freshman guard Gabe Nesmith, whose absence already loomed over the opener. Byington confirmed Nesmith underwent surgery and will be sidelined for a couple of months, with the possibility the injury could end his season, leaving Vanderbilt to adjust its guard rotation as the schedule starts to tighten. [Read more 🡒]