Vanderbilt’s final nonconference game of the 2026 season brings a matchup that feels like a real early test, even if it comes in mid-September. The Commodores will host NC State at FirstBank Stadium, and both teams arrive with bowl appearances behind them and bigger goals ahead.
It also gives Clark Lea a chance to face Dave Doeren in a head-to-head setting for the first time as head coaches. Lea has seen a Doeren team before, though. Back in 2017, when Lea was Notre Dame’s linebacker coach, the Fighting Irish beat NC State by three touchdowns.
This version of the Wolfpack looks different, especially on offense. NC State lost its leading rusher, Hollywood Smothers, to Texas, and also moved on from two of its top receiving threats in Terrell Anderson and Justin Joly. The Wolfpack did add some help at receiver, but the biggest problem for Vanderbilt to solve is still CJ Bailey.
Bailey is the kind of quarterback who can change the game with his legs, and that is the first thing Vanderbilt has to take away. If the Commodores can force him to stay in the pocket and play more as a passer, they can strip away a major part of what makes him dangerous. He can throw it, but his passing game gets a lot more dangerous when he is escaping and creating outside the pocket.
The other side of the ball gives Vanderbilt a different kind of question. The Commodores do not yet know who their quarterback will be when this game arrives, which makes it hard to pin down exactly how the offense will look. Whoever starts will be facing the first major challenge of the season against a NC State defense that added several players through the transfer portal after a rough 2025.
What Vanderbilt can count on is its offensive line. The Commodores brought in more experienced players to fill a couple of spots up front, and that group is expected to be one of the better lines in college football. Against a defense that was vulnerable a season ago, that matters.
So the formula is pretty clear: if Vanderbilt’s line wins the battle and the quarterback play is solid enough, the Commodores should be able to move the ball. If the defense can keep Bailey from taking over with his legs, Vanderbilt has the edge in a game that should be tight.
In the end, that leads to a close Vanderbilt win and a 3-0 start.