With championship weekend on deck, the Heisman Trophy race has zeroed in on two quarterbacks who’ll be staring each other down in Indianapolis. The Big Ten title game isn’t just a battle for the conference crown or the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff - it’s shaping up to be the de facto Heisman decider. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the last two undefeated starting quarterbacks in the country, are front and center.
Let’s start with Sayin. The freshman phenom finally got the Michigan monkey off Ohio State’s back, and while his performance wasn’t perfect - he opened the game with an ugly interception - he bounced back with three touchdown passes that helped seal the win. That victory not only punched the Buckeyes’ ticket to the Big Ten title game, it also vaulted Sayin right into the thick of the Heisman conversation.
On the other side, Mendoza didn’t have to do much in Indiana’s 56-3 rout of Purdue. With the Hoosiers in full control early, Mendoza logged just 15 pass attempts, but still managed 117 yards and two touchdowns. It was more than enough to keep his team undefeated and his Heisman hopes alive.
As of now, Mendoza holds a razor-thin edge in the Heisman odds at +125, with Sayin right behind at +130, according to BetMGM. Mendoza had been the clear frontrunner in recent weeks, even dipping into minus-odds territory - a sign that more than half the betting public believed he’d win. But Sayin’s big-game performance in The Game tightened the race considerably.
Statistically, neither QB is lighting up the yardage charts, and that’s largely due to the dominance of their teams. Blowouts have limited their opportunities to rack up huge numbers.
Mendoza ranks 37th nationally in passing yards with 2,758, but he leads the country with 32 touchdown passes. Sayin, meanwhile, sits 18th in yards (3,065) and third in TDs (30).
It’s not eye-popping, but when you’re leading an undefeated team and playing your best in the biggest moments, that counts for a lot in a year without a runaway star.
And that’s been the story of this Heisman race - no singular, dominant force. Which means being the quarterback of a title-contending, undefeated team carries extra weight. Especially when other fringe contenders stumbled at the worst possible time.
Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed saw his long-shot hopes evaporate after throwing two picks in a loss to Texas. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton barely cracked 70 passing yards in a rivalry win over Georgia Tech. And Haynes King, who had an outside shot with Georgia Tech, couldn’t get his offense going in a nine-point showing that likely ended his campaign.
One player still hanging around the conversation is Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. He’s not going to play again this season, but he’s made his case.
In Vandy’s 45-24 win over Tennessee, Pavia threw two interceptions but ran wild for 165 yards, continuing to flash the kind of dual-threat ability that’s turned heads. He’s currently third in the odds at +333 and has been striking the Heisman pose after big plays - and honestly, he’s earned the right to.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is also making a late push. He left Saturday’s 49-20 win at Stanford early, but not before notching another touchdown.
Love finished the regular season fourth in rushing yards nationally (1,372) and third in rushing touchdowns (18). He’s sitting at +1400 in the odds - a long shot to win, but a strong candidate to be in New York as a finalist.
So where does that leave us? With four clear contenders: Mendoza, Sayin, Pavia, and Love.
The rest - including potential breakout performances from players like Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, or even Stockton - would need something historic in their conference title games to even sniff the podium. And even then, the odds are stacked against them.
All eyes now turn to Indianapolis. Mendoza vs.
Sayin. No. 1 vs.
No. 2.
Two undefeated teams. One last chance to make a Heisman statement on the biggest stage of the season.
Buckle up - this one’s got all the makings of a classic.