The Edmonton Oilers may have been tagged with two of the NHL’s worst contracts by an expert, but there’s a strong case to be made that the picture is a lot less bleak than that.
One of the names at the center of the debate is Jake Walman, whose playoff work this year stood out in a big way. He posted a +0.93 per game in the postseason, a terrific mark for a defenseman, after finishing at -0.23 per game in last year’s playoffs, which was described as an OK-to-good number for a d-man.
When Walman is healthy, the profile is pretty clear: he looks like a solid Top 4 NHL defenseman, a sharp puck mover and a smart defender who can help a team chase a Stanley Cup.
The catch, of course, is the health. Walman’s injury history is exactly why skepticism about his long-term value makes sense, especially on a contract that will run until he’s 36 in the final year.
Most NHL defensemen start to drop off hard sometime after 32 or 33, and only a small group are still effective Top 4 players after 35. The expectation here is that Walman probably won’t be one of those exceptions.
Still, there’s another side to the argument. If he can finally put together a full season - something he has never done in his NHL career - he could perform like a $10 million defenseman for the next three or four years. That outcome is viewed as possible, though not likely, with about a 13 per cent chance attached to it, matching the odds Luszczyszyn assigns to Walman returning positive overall value on the deal.
The counterview is more optimistic. Walman’s odds of providing positive value are closer to 33 per cent, and that lines up with the chance he plays 60-plus games in each of the next five or six seasons.
His biggest value to Edmonton may not show up neatly in the contract math anyway. In the playoffs, he’s been a stone-cold killer, and that kind of impact isn’t built into Luszczyszyn’s percentages.
That’s why the bottom line is simple enough: if Walman helps the Oilers win the Cup in the next three or four years, the contract will have earned its keep. The same logic applies to Frederic.
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Now the conversation has been reframed by a report that brings back the unease around that original deal and ties it to the broader skepticism that has followed Pettersson into the present. His recent drop-off, injuries and the growing criticism from coaches and management have made the old questions feel newly relevant, even after the club committed to him with an eight-year extension in 2024. For Canucks fans, the uncomfortable part is not just where things stand now, but how much of this was apparently being debated long before the latest slump ever started. [Read more 🡒]