Adam Novotny has done just about everything possible to make noise in his first Vancouver Canucks training camp. He was already turning heads at development camp this summer, when clips of his shot started making the rounds, and he only cranked up the attention this weekend in the Prospect Showcase against the Seattle Kraken.
In Game 1, Novotny put on a show with a highlight-reel goal. In Game 2, skating on the top line with Braeden Cootes and Brooks Rogowski, he followed that up with another goal and two assists. For a 24th overall pick, it was the kind of opening act that gets people talking fast.
And yet, even with all that buzz, the path for Novotny this season looks pretty straightforward.
At first glance, it seemed like Vancouver might have three possible destinations for him: the CHL, the AHL, or the NHL. But the league’s rule change closed off the AHL route for Novotny.
He turns 19 on November 13, but because the NHL counts a player’s age at the start of the season, he is considered an 18-year-old and is not eligible for the AHL yet. That AHL option now belongs to Cootes and Cootes alone this year.
So for Novotny, it comes down to two choices: the Canucks, or the Peterborough Petes of the OHL.
That’s what makes his camp so interesting. He was drafted in the back half of the first round, which usually means a player is still a ways off from NHL duty.
But Novotny came into the organization with a package of traits that already looked pro-ready: a heavy frame, skating, puck protection, a shot, and a commitment to playing responsibly on both sides of the puck. So far in a Vancouver jersey, he has backed that up.
Still, that doesn’t mean he’s likely to break camp with the Canucks.
Vancouver went through a similar conversation with Cootes last preseason, when he was also drawing plenty of attention. The difference was that the Canucks had a clearer opening at centre. Injuries, including one to Teddy Blueger, helped create the path for Cootes, who ended up appearing in three regular-season games before being sent back to the Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL.
Novotny’s case is different because he’s a winger, and the Canucks already have a crowded group there. Jake DeBrusk, Brock Boeser, Liam Öhgren, Linus Karlsson, Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Filip Chytil, Drew O’Connor, Brendan Gallagher, Paul Cotter, Sasson, and more are all in the mix. Breaking into the top six, or even the top nine, would be a serious climb.
Could injuries open the door? Sure.
If enough wingers go down before Novotny is sent back to junior, Vancouver would have to make decisions. But even then, the Canucks may prefer to use those minutes on wingers who could benefit from them right away, especially Öhgren and Lekkerimäki.
There is also the possibility that Novotny simply outplays some of those names in camp. Based on what he has shown so far, that’s not impossible.
But even that might not be enough to flip the decision. Lekkerimäki, for example, dealt with an injury to finish last season and start the offseason, so a slower camp would not be shocking.
Even if Novotny looks better in the moment, the Canucks could still give Lekkerimäki the first chance to rebound. Novotny will be back in camp next year.
Lekkerimäki might not have that same runway.
A short NHL cameo is another theoretical route. If Novotny played nine games or fewer before going back to the OHL, his entry-level contract would still slide, just as Cootes’ did last year. But with the roster logjam at wing, that doesn’t really seem necessary.
There’s also the development angle, and it matters here. Novotny has only played one season and 58 total games for the Petes, and that’s also his total experience on North American ice.
He is not a junior veteran. Cootes, by comparison, had already logged parts of three seasons with the Thunderbirds before the Canucks drafted him, which helps explain why Vancouver was more open to giving Cootes a look in the pro game.
For Novotny, another year in the OHL still offers plenty. He put up 34 goals and 65 points in 58 games last season, and there’s room to push those numbers higher.
His playoff line - one assist in six games - also leaves something to chase. On top of that, he should get a chance to play a big role for Team Czechia at the World Juniors.
So while Novotny’s strong showing right now absolutely matters in the bigger picture, it probably shouldn’t change the immediate plan. The long-term upside is obvious. The short-term answer is less dramatic.
Next season, the decision gets a lot more complicated, because Novotny will have the CHL, AHL, and NHL on the table. For now, though, the clearest move is the one that sends him back to junior.
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