Canucks Fall to Leafs in Shootout Despite Tolopilo’s Heroics: A Game of Missed Chances and Mixed Signals
The Vancouver Canucks came close, but close doesn’t cut it in the NHL. In a game that saw flashes of potential but ultimately underscored the team’s ongoing struggles, Vancouver dropped a 3-2 shootout decision to the Toronto Maple Leafs. A strong opening period gave way to a steady loss of momentum, and by the time overtime rolled around, it was clear who had the upper hand.
Still, thanks to a gutsy effort from goaltender Nikita Tolopilo, the Canucks managed to steal a point. Beyond that, though, there’s not much sugarcoating this one - Vancouver was outworked and outplayed when it mattered most.
Let’s break it down.
Game Flow: A Tale of Two Halves
The first period was fairly balanced - a back-and-forth stretch where both teams traded chances and Vancouver held its own. But as the game wore on, the ice tilted.
The second period, surprisingly, was Vancouver’s best statistically. They posted a 48.94% Corsi For (CF%) and a 49.26% expected goals for percentage (xGF%), even generating a 7-4 edge in high-danger chances.
But the third period was all Toronto. The Leafs dominated with a 7-2 advantage in high-danger chances and a lopsided 1.91 to 0.39 edge in expected goals at 5-on-5.
That’s not just a bad period - that’s a collapse. Vancouver simply couldn’t generate anything meaningful, and their defensive structure cracked under pressure.
Heat Map: Not as Ugly as Expected, But Still Telling
Looking at the heat map, you’d expect worse given how skewed the expected goals were. Toronto did have the bigger hot spot in front of Vancouver’s net - no surprise there - but the density wasn’t dramatically higher than what the Canucks managed. Still, it’s a reminder that while Vancouver didn’t completely fold in terms of positioning, they were bleeding chances all night.
Toronto finished with a 38-20 edge in total scoring chances and a 14-10 lead in high-danger opportunities. That’s a lot of rubber for any goalie to face.
Individual Performances: Who Showed Up and Who Didn’t
Corsi Champ: Drew O’Connor
In a game where puck possession was hard to come by, Drew O’Connor stood out. He led the Canucks with a 48.39 CF%, which was 16.10% above the team average - a significant gap that shows just how little Vancouver had the puck when he wasn’t on the ice.
O’Connor also posted a solid 45.65 xGF% and was one of the few Canucks to win his high-danger matchup, finishing with a 5-3 edge. He tied for fourth on the team in expected goals (0.74), showing that he wasn’t just staying afloat - he was actively pushing play.
Corsi Chump: Evander Kane
On the flip side, Evander Kane had a night to forget. His 22.50 CF% was dead last on the team, and the numbers only got worse from there. Kane’s 0.17 xGF was second-lowest among Canucks skaters, and he was on the ice for 2 scoring chances for... and 18 against.
His xGF%? A brutal 9.34.
And yet, somehow, he managed to pick up an assist - a small silver lining in an otherwise bleak performance. If Kane’s being evaluated for a potential trade, teams will need to look past the box score to get the full picture.
xGF Leader: Elias Pettersson (D)
Elias Pettersson - the defenseman - led all Canucks in expected goals for percentage at 59.14%, with a massive 41.31% relative to the team average. He was on the ice for a near-even 12-13 scoring chance split but came out ahead in high-danger chances, 7-4.
Pettersson’s 1.25 xGF was the highest on the team, highlighting his ability to generate offense while still holding his own defensively. He continues to be one of the few bright spots in Vancouver’s lineup.
GSAx Hero: Nikita Tolopilo
Nikita Tolopilo deserves a standing ovation. The Belarusian netminder faced an onslaught and still managed to keep the Canucks in the game, finishing with a 2.02 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Toronto generated 4.02 expected goals across regulation and overtime, but Tolopilo only allowed two - both from medium-danger areas.
He was flawless against nine high-danger shots and continues to make a strong case for more starts. His performance was the biggest reason Vancouver walked away with a point.
Rookie Watch: Tom Willander Holding His Own
Tom Willander’s rookie season has been a grind, but he’s showing signs of real growth. Against the Leafs, he was paired with Marcus Pettersson and tasked with shutting down the Tavares-Nylander line - no easy feat for any defenseman, let alone a first-year player.
While the numbers weren’t sparkling - the Leafs held a 5-1 edge in high-danger chances against their pairing - Willander didn’t fold. He played with poise, positioning, and a willingness to battle. It’s clear the coaching staff sees something in him, and performances like this show why.
Team Stats Snapshot
- Corsi For % (CF%): 37.41%
- High-Danger Chances For % (HDCF%): 45.45%
- Expected Goals For % (xGF%): 39.11%
The Canucks were outshot, out-chanced, and out-executed. They had their moments, especially early, but couldn’t sustain pressure or keep pace with Toronto’s depth and structure. It’s the kind of game that’s been all too familiar for Vancouver this season - flashes of promise drowned out by inconsistency and a lack of finish.
Final Thoughts
This wasn’t a game the Canucks deserved to win. Outside of Tolopilo’s standout performance and some encouraging signs from younger players like Willander and O’Connor, the team looked overmatched. Veterans who should be driving play weren’t engaged, and the team’s structure fell apart when it mattered most.
Vancouver heads to Salt Lake City next to face the Utah Mammoth. If they want to turn the tide, they’ll need more than just a hot goalie - they’ll need a full-team effort. Because right now, one point isn’t enough to mask the bigger issues at play.