Canucks Hang Tough, But Avalanche’s Second-Period Surge Seals 3-1 Loss
The Vancouver Canucks didn’t get blown out. That’s the good news.
The bad news? They didn’t do enough to beat one of the NHL’s best, falling 3-1 to the Colorado Avalanche in a game that felt all too familiar for this team - competitive, but not quite capable of crossing the finish line.
Against a Colorado squad that’s been steamrolling opponents all season, Vancouver showed flashes of resilience. But once again, those flashes weren’t enough to spark a full-on fire. Let’s break down how this one unfolded - and where the Canucks came up short.
Game Flow: Avalanche Take Over in the Second
Early on, Vancouver looked like it might have something brewing. The first period was a tight one, and the Canucks actually posted their best expected goals for (xGF) of the night in that frame at 0.56. Not earth-shattering, but enough to get on the board and keep pace with a high-powered Avs offense.
But the second period was where things unraveled.
Colorado dominated the middle frame, owning a 68.42% share in Corsi For (CF%) and a 70.81% xGF%. They piled up 1.12 expected goals in that period alone and cashed in with two goals to stretch their lead to 3-1.
From there, it was cruise control. Vancouver simply couldn’t muster enough pushback to climb out of the hole.
Heat Map: Defensive Effort Was There, But Offense Didn’t Follow
Looking at the heat map, this wasn’t a full-on defensive collapse. The Canucks actually did a decent job limiting Colorado’s most dangerous looks - especially considering the Avs’ firepower.
The final tally in scoring chances favored Colorado 27-19, with an 11-4 edge in high-danger opportunities. That edge was visible in the slot, where the Avs generated most of their offense.
But while Vancouver held its own defensively, the problem was the other end of the ice. The Canucks just didn’t generate enough quality looks to make this a real contest.
Individual Performances: The Good, the Not-So-Good, and the Encouraging
Corsi Champ - Jonathan Lekkerimäki (57.14 CF%)
The young Swede continues to look more comfortable with each game. Skating on the top line alongside Evander Kane and Elias Pettersson, Lekkerimäki led the team in Corsi For percentage and was on ice for just 0.32 expected goals against (xGA) - third-best on the team.
His xGF% was slightly above team average, and while he didn’t find the scoresheet, the signs of growth are there. With the season likely shifting toward development mode, giving Lekkerimäki more runway seems like the right move.
Corsi Chump - Arshdeep Bains (25.00 CF%)
It was a rough outing for Bains, who ended up on the wrong side of the puck most of the night. He was on ice for just one shot for and seven against, posting a team-low 20.15 xGF%.
Still, he did pick up an assist on the Canucks’ lone goal, so it wasn’t a total loss. But against Colorado’s bottom six, this was a matchup Vancouver needed to win - and didn’t.
xGF Leader - Evander Kane (65.44 xGF%)
Kane quietly put together a solid game. He led the team in xGF% and had the lowest xGA on the roster at 0.19.
Interestingly, while he was on the ice, neither team generated a high-danger chance. That’s a win when you’re facing a team like Colorado.
Kane didn’t light up the stat sheet, but he played responsible hockey and helped tilt the ice in Vancouver’s favor when he was out there.
Raw xGF Leader - Quinn Hughes (0.99 xGF)
The captain led the Canucks in raw expected goals and split scoring chances evenly at 8-8. He also held a 1-1 tie in high-danger chances while on the ice.
Statistically, it was a solid night for Hughes, though his body language suggested some frustration. Understandable, given the team’s struggles to capitalize when it matters most.
Goaltending - Kevin Lankinen (-0.52 GSAx)
Lankinen was fine. Not spectacular, but not the issue either.
The Avalanche generated 2.48 expected goals, and Lankinen gave up three - two on high-danger chances and one from the middle-danger range. With only one goal of support from his teammates, it’s hard to pin this one on the netminder.
He gave the Canucks a chance to hang around, but the offense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain.
Statistical Musings: A Few Bright Spots in a Familiar Story
Tom Willander Holding His Own
The young blueliner continues to get thrown into the fire, and he’s holding up well. Willander saw shifts against Ross Colton and Gabriel Landeskog - not exactly soft minutes - and stayed right around team average in xGF% while allowing just two high-danger chances. That’s a solid outing for a rookie, especially against a team like Colorado.
Kiefer Sherwood’s Stock Still Rising
Sherwood’s name is floating in trade talks, and performances like this help his case. He posted the team’s third-best xGF% (53.16) and fourth-best raw xGF (0.55) while logging top-six minutes.
He hasn’t recorded a point in five straight games, but the underlying numbers suggest he’s still driving play. If he can start cashing in, his value could rise quickly.
Elias Pettersson vs. Nathan MacKinnon - A Quiet Defensive Masterclass
This one might fly under the radar, but it shouldn’t. Pettersson spent most of the night matched up against Nathan MacKinnon - and he won that battle.
MacKinnon scored twice, yes, but neither came with Pettersson on the ice. In their head-to-head minutes, Pettersson controlled a 77.78 CF% and an 83.00 xGF%, with a 4-1 edge in scoring chances and no high-danger looks allowed.
That’s elite two-way play, and it deserved a better outcome.
Team Metrics
- Corsi For % (CF%) - 47.93%
- High-Danger Chances For % (HDCF%) - 42.11%
- Expected Goals For % (xGF%) - 40.82%
These numbers tell the story: the Canucks were in it, but not in control. They didn’t get overwhelmed, but they didn’t dictate the game either. And that’s been the theme far too often - close, but not close enough.
What’s Next?
The Canucks get a bit of a breather before they host the Utah Mammoth on Friday. With the season slipping further from playoff contention, the focus may start shifting toward development, trade value, and finding out who’s part of the long-term plan.
But for now, the takeaway is simple: this team can hang with the league’s elite - just not for long enough to matter.