Utah is about to find out how much an unbeaten record is really worth.
The Utes are one of just three undefeated teams left in the country, but ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis thinks the first College Football Playoff rankings will still leave them short of the top tier. On the College GameDay Podcast, Davis projected No. 3 Utah (8-0) to come in “right around five” on Tuesday night, with the schedule dragging them down.
“Utah’s strength of schedule right now ranks in the 80s, and so that’s below the midway point in the country,” Davis said.
That’s the tension around Utah right now: the results are spotless, but the résumé has questions. Davis made clear he respects what the Utes have put on tape.
“I think they’re a really good team. I think they’re a dangerous team, very physical, can hold their own with anybody, but again, that’s only part of the evaluation,” Davis said. “The other is the paper.”
Utah’s eight wins have come against Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado, Houston and Cincinnati. Of that group, only Houston - now No. 17 - is ranked in this week’s AP Top 25.
Podcast co-host Dan Wetzel zeroed in on the same issue, asking: “How many quality wins does Utah really have? They did beat Houston, which I think is a really good team.”
Davis didn’t dress up his answer.
“I think Utah better win.”
That sets up Saturday’s matchup with No. 7 BYU (7-1) as the kind of game that can change the conversation. The Cougars bring a 28-24 win over Notre Dame and three straight victories over Utah into the rivalry meeting, and Davis said that if the Utes take care of business, they’ll earn something the committee values more than a clean record.
“Utah’s going to have a lot of wins just like everybody else if they don’t beat BYU. They’re good wins, but everybody has those,” Davis said. “Differentiating wins, those will be harder to come by.”
He also said Tuesday’s rankings should make the message plain.
“I think they’re going to look at the schedule and have them right around five and say, ‘You still got opportunities here. You beat BYU, we look at it in a little bit of a different light.’”
Even if Utah slips against BYU, Davis said the season wouldn’t be over. The Big 12 Championship Game would give the Utes another shot.
“If Utah goes, they would have another chance.”
After BYU, Utah still has road games at No. 24 Arizona and TCU, then finishes the regular season at home against West Virginia.
First-year Utah coach Morgan Scalley is keeping the focus where it’s been all season.
“It’s not the big one, it’s a big one, just like last week was a big one,” Scalley said Monday. “I’m pretty confident in our guys that they’re not going to look beyond this week.”
The first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and BYU and Utah meet Saturday at noon ET on ABC.
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