Utah’s 2026 schedule looks like it could build to something special, but the real test comes late. The Utes are projected to start 8-0, and that kind of run would put them in the national conversation. Still, the last four games are where the season gets serious, and where the question shifts from “good team” to “playoff contender.”
The biggest game on the slate is the one that could define everything: BYU at Rice-Eccles Stadium. If Utah reaches that matchup unbeaten, it should be sitting in the top 10.
BYU could be there too, especially if the Cougars beat Notre Dame. That sets up a rivalry game with real Big 12 weight behind it, and BYU brings plenty of firepower into it - one of the conference’s best rosters, an elite defense, and LJ Martin, one of the league’s top backs.
This also shapes up as Morgan Scalley’s first time leading Utah into its biggest game, and it carries the feel of a program-defining night. The Utes have dropped four straight to their in-state rival, and that’s a streak they badly want to end.
With home-field advantage, a healthy Devon Dampier, and what the source describes as Morgan’s approach to this game vs. Kyle’s, Utah is picked to finally get past the Cougars and move to 9-0.
The celebration, though, would be short-lived.
Week 11 sends Utah to Arizona, and that road trip looks like the most dangerous one on the schedule. Brent Brennan’s Wildcats were one of the Big 12’s best turnaround stories last year, and they still have Noah Fifita, a quarterback who is already 2-0 against Utah in his career and is on pace to rewrite Arizona’s record book. The Wildcats’ offensive line is solid, the skill group is loaded, and even though the secondary has to be rebuilt, second-year defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales is expected to keep that side in good shape.
Utah could win that game. The source doesn’t rule it out.
But the prediction is an Arizona upset, with the timing of the game - right after BYU - making the challenge even tougher. Dampier and Fifita should make for an electric quarterback battle, but the Utes are projected to take their first loss and fall to 9-1.
Then comes another road game, and another tough one. Utah heads to TCU in Week 12, and the Horned Frogs have been a steady force under Sonny Dykes, winning nine or more games in each of the last four seasons.
TCU has some rebuilding to do, but plenty returns on both sides, and the Frogs will have more than two months of game action to build chemistry before Utah arrives. The biggest question is quarterback, where Jaden Craig’s jump from Harvard to the Power Four level remains an open question.
Utah is good enough to win in Fort Worth, but the projection here is a second straight loss. The source frames that more as a reflection of how backloaded the schedule is than a knock on the Utes themselves.
With all nine starters gone in the trenches, other departures, and coaching changes in the mix, some regression is expected in 2026. So while Utah is still viewed as a strong team, it’s not quite an 11-win team in this forecast.
The Utes are picked to slip to 9-2.
The regular season ends on Black Friday against West Virginia, even though the game should have been BYU. Instead, Utah gets a Mountaineers team that was beaten badly in Morgantown last fall, 48-14.
This version of West Virginia should look much different. Rich Rodriguez attacked the transfer portal, bringing in more than 80 new faces, and this time the additions are said to come with more proven college production.
Cam Cook, who led all Division I ball carriers in rushing yards, is among the key arrivals.
West Virginia should be better, but the quarterback situation is still unsettled. Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins Jr and returning sophomore Scotty Fox Jr are set to battle for the job in fall camp, and either way, winning in Rice-Eccles Stadium would be a tall order.
The source points out that even in Utah’s down 2024 season, the quarterbacks who won in Salt Lake City were upper-echelon conference passers. West Virginia doesn’t appear to have that kind of answer, and it doesn’t look like a top-10 Big 12 team either.
Coming off two losses and still alive for the Big 12 title game, Utah is projected to close strong and finish 10-2.
In Other News...
Houston Is In The Big 12 Talk But One Doubt Remains
As the Big 12 looks toward 2026, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy sees a league with plenty of intrigue but not enough proven firepower at the top. He pointed to the conferences coaching turnover and the lack of true superstar talent compared with the other Power Four leagues, while noting the Big 12 has not produced a national champion since the four-team playoff era began in 2014.
Utah still belongs in the conversation, though, because McElroy listed the Utes with Texas Tech, BYU and Houston as teams that could reach the playoff. The catch is the same one hanging over the rest of the league: getting there is one thing, and making a real run is another, especially when the national title picture still feels out of reach from the Big 12 side. [Read more 🡒]