Morgan Scalley didn’t dance around the issue after Utah’s first major fall-camp scrimmage. The Utes got to the red zone, but they didn’t finish often enough.
“Red-zone work, kind of a mixed bag,” Scalley said Monday. “We need to be more efficient.
Not enough touchdowns in the red zone. Too many field goals.”
That wasn’t a shot at the kicking game. Scalley specifically praised Dillon Curtis and Tanner Cragun. The concern was simpler than that: Utah’s offense, which set a massive standard last season, was settling for three when it had been built to cash in for seven.
And that’s the real question now. How much drop-off is normal after a year like that?
Utah reached the end zone on 47 of its 59 red-zone possessions last season, a 79.7% touchdown rate that led the nation. It also scored on 54 total possessions in the red zone, good for a 91.5% rate, while averaging 41.3 points per game.
Against Big 12 teams, the Utes turned 72.2% of their red-zone chances into touchdowns. Against non-conference opponents, that number jumped to 91.3%.
Against the five FBS opponents that finished with winning records, Utah still posted a 72.7% touchdown rate.
That kind of production is not a realistic baseline to chase again. The broader numbers tell the story: FBS teams as a whole scored touchdowns on 61.8% of red-zone trips last season, and the Big 12 came in at 61.2%.
For Utah, the sweet spot for 2026 looks more like the mid-60s. Around 65% would be a clear step back from last year, but still comfortably above national and conference averages.
Even 62% would keep the Utes in workable territory.
The difference matters, but it’s not catastrophic. At last year’s volume of 59 red-zone possessions, a 65% touchdown rate would mean about 38 touchdowns, which is nine fewer than Utah scored in 2025.
If those possessions became field goals instead, that would trim roughly 36 points from the season. At 62%, the total would be about 37 touchdowns, or around 40 points fewer than last year.
Either way, Utah would still be in a good place offensively if the rest of the machine keeps humming.
Of course, that “if” does a lot of work. Red-zone volume, field-goal reliability and explosive plays from outside the 20 all factor into the final scoring picture. But the line is clear: mid-60s is the target, 62% is acceptable, and dipping below 60% would start to look like a real problem.
The biggest challenge inside the 20 starts up front. Scalley believes the rebuilt offensive line has gotten more physical and cleaned up some pre-snap issues, but communication, protection and handling defensive movement still need work. Those are the details that decide red-zone football, where the field shrinks and one blown block can wreck a drive.
Utah also has to replace a lot of touchdown production. NaQuari Rogers, Dallen Bentley, JJ Buchanan and Ryan Davis combined for 26 offensive touchdowns last season. Not every one of those came in the red zone, but that’s still a lot of finishing to replace.
The good news is that Utah isn’t starting from scratch. Dampier, Ficklin, Parker and Bray combined for 27 rushing touchdowns last season, and that group should give the Utes a real foundation near the goal line.
Dampier and Ficklin force defenses to account for another ball carrier, which helps recreate the numbers advantage that often disappears in tight spaces. Parker brings the most proven backfield production, and Bray’s speed can stretch the edge.
The key is balance. Utah can lean on the quarterback run game, but it can’t make Dampier the answer to every tough spot. Still, that’s not foreign territory for him - Dampier ran for 19 touchdowns at New Mexico in 2024.
Beyond that core, Utah needs complementary pieces to make defenses pay for loading up. Steve Chavez-Soto adds another proven runner after scoring seven touchdowns in eight games at San Jose State, and at 205 pounds he gives Utah a real option when it needs two hard yards. Mateaki Helu and Hunter Andrews could also bring some extra punch in goal-line packages.
Then there’s Semi Taulanga, Utah’s Rhino tight end, who comes in at 5-foot-11 and 317 pounds. He offers a very different kind of short-yardage problem for a defense to solve.
The passing game has to have its own order of operations near the goal line, too. Braden Pegan brings size at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and caught five touchdowns in Kevin McGiven’s Utah State offense. Larry Simmons showed he can finish drives, turning 15 catches into six touchdowns last season.
Utah doesn’t need one player to replace every touchdown that left. It needs enough different answers that defenses can’t just key on Parker or the quarterbacks. Pegan’s frame, Simmons’ finishing touch, Andrews’ versatility, Chavez-Soto’s power and the heavier personnel packages all have to work together.
So the standard is pretty straightforward. Utah does not have to duplicate a 79.7% red-zone touchdown rate to stay among the Big 12’s better offenses. A finish in the mid-60s would keep the Utes above the national and conference averages, and even 62% would still be manageable if they keep creating chances and turning stalled drives into field goals.
The foundation is there in the run game. What decides the ceiling is how the offensive line holds up, which pass-catchers emerge, and whether Utah can find enough answers to keep defenses honest.
Field goals can help. They can keep drives from becoming empty. But they can’t be the identity.
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