As the College Football Playoff selection committee prepares to unveil its penultimate rankings, all eyes in Salt Lake City are on one question: does Utah still have a shot at sneaking into the playoff picture?
The Utes, sitting at 10-2 overall and 7-2 in Big 12 play, have been lurking just outside the projected 12-team bracket since the CFP rankings started rolling out in early November. And while their odds aren’t exactly favorable, there’s still a sliver of hope - but it’s going to take more than just wishful thinking to get them over the hump.
Here’s where things stand: Utah likely needs to crack the top 10 in Tuesday’s rankings to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. That’s because the Big 12’s automatic spot will go to the winner of Saturday’s conference title game between Texas Tech and BYU. With that door closed, Utah’s only pathway is through the committee’s at-large selections - and that’s a tough crowd to impress this late in the game.
Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, for his part, isn’t shy about backing the Utes. He’s made it clear he believes Utah deserves “strong consideration,” and he’s been vocal about that support, including during his appearance at the ASU-Arizona game on Friday night. But ironically, it was that very game that effectively ended Utah’s hopes of playing for the Big 12 title.
The Utes needed a specific - and frankly improbable - set of outcomes to go their way to reach the conference championship in Arlington. They needed Arizona State to upset Arizona, BYU to beat UCF, and West Virginia to knock off Texas Tech.
That chain of events didn’t materialize. Arizona handled ASU 23-7, and Texas Tech held serve.
Even though Utah did its part earlier that day with a 31-21 win over Kansas, the damage was already done. The Utes were out of the title game conversation before the sun set on Black Friday.
Still, Utah’s résumé isn’t without merit. Heading into Tuesday’s rankings reveal, the Utes ranked No. 15 in the country in strength of record and were one of just 11 teams nationally to boast both a top-25 offense and defense.
That’s the kind of balance the committee claims to value. But it may not be enough.
The Week 14 AP Top 25 poll offered a preview of what might be coming, and it wasn’t encouraging for Utah. Several teams in the same at-large mix made strong statements over the weekend.
Vanderbilt, ranked No. 14 in the last CFP rankings and just behind Utah at No. 13, took down then-No. 18 Tennessee in convincing fashion, 45-24.
Texas, sitting at No. 16, pulled off a major win over then-No. 3 Texas A&M, 27-17.
Those are résumé-builders that could vault both teams past Utah in the eyes of the committee.
Then there’s Michigan, which was No. 15 before falling to No. 1 Ohio State.
That loss likely opens up a spot, but it may be Texas - not Utah - that slides into it. And Miami, previously No. 12, only solidified its case with a dominant 38-7 win over No.
22 Pitt. The Hurricanes also hold a statistical edge in both strength of record (No. 14) and strength of schedule (No. 44), compared to Utah’s No.
Beyond individual matchups and metrics, there’s also the structural reality of the playoff format. The top five conference champions are guaranteed spots, regardless of whether they come from a Power 4 or Group of 5 league.
Right now, the top 12 is dominated by teams from just three conferences - the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 - which means the committee will need to make room for at least two more conference champs. That could squeeze out at-large hopefuls like Utah unless they’re sitting comfortably inside the top 10.
So where does that leave the Utes? On the outside looking in - but not completely out. Tuesday’s rankings will either breathe new life into their playoff dreams or shut the door for good.
It’s a tough pill to swallow for a Utah team that’s done a lot right this season. But in a year where the margins are razor-thin and the competition for at-large bids is fierce, the Utes are going to need more than just a strong résumé. They’re going to need a little help - and a lot of belief from the committee.