BYU and Utah are on a collision course, and the timing could hardly be better for everyone except maybe the rest of the Big 12.
The Holy War is still 45 days away - Nov. 7 at Rice-Eccles Stadium - but the buildup already feels oversized. Both teams are unbeaten, both are ranked, and both have a path to making that matchup matter far beyond state bragging rights. In fact, the 2026 edition could end up shaping the Big 12 title race and the College Football Playoff picture.
At minimum, it will be only the third time this century that BYU and Utah meet while both are ranked.
And this time, they might be ranked in the top 10.
They might even both be perfect.
That possibility sent the math spinning, so the Hotline ran the numbers on whether each team could arrive at the showdown with an 8-0 record. Teamrankings.com has the No.
9 Cougars and No. 15 Utes favored in all but one of their combined 10 games before the rivalry clash.
The lone exception is BYU’s home game against third-ranked Notre Dame, which vegasinsider.com lists with the Irish favored by 10 points.
Utah’s path includes these projected win chances:
at Iowa State: 77%
vs. Kansas: 88%
at Colorado: 91%
vs. Houston: 66%
at Cincinnati: 80%
Using those figures, the Utes come out to a 32.5% chance of being 8-0 when BYU arrives. One in three, roughly.
But that number doesn’t fully account for how the schedule lines up. Houston visits Salt Lake City on Oct. 24, and it closes out a brutal three-game run for the Cougars: at Kansas State, home against Oklahoma State - which just dominated Oregon - and then the trip to Rice-Eccles and the altitude and chaos that comes with it. Utah, meanwhile, should be coming off what looks like a routine beating of Colorado, which just got run off the field by Northwestern.
That’s why the Hotline sees Utah’s real chances as better than the model suggests, closer to 50-50 for a spotless record entering the rivalry game.
BYU’s road is even trickier, at least on paper. The Cougars’ remaining games and projected win chances are:
at TCU: 62%
vs. Iowa State: 83%
vs. Notre Dame: 26%
at UCF: 62%
vs. Arizona State: 74%
That works out to just a 6% chance of BYU winning all five and showing up in Salt Lake City undefeated. If BYU beats Notre Dame, though, that number jumps to 24%, and the odds of both teams being unbeaten rise to 8%.
Still, the Irish are the monster in the middle of BYU’s schedule, and the game has major consequences for the Cougars’ College Football Playoff résumé even though it has no impact on the Big 12 standings.
The more realistic concern is what happens inside the league. Texas Tech’s 2-point win over Houston last Friday carried real weight because the Red Raiders, ranked 11th, were already viewed as a preseason Big 12 favorite by many - though not by the Hotline - and they don’t have to play BYU or Utah. With a favorable schedule and most of their hardest games at home, they’re in position to claim one spot in the conference championship game.
That makes the Holy War feel like a possible eliminator. The winner could use the head-to-head edge to chase the second spot in Arlington. The loser could be shoved to the edge of the Big 12 race and, with it, pushed close to the cutoff line for the CFP.
That danger matters because the selection committee has not been kind to the Big 12 through the first two years of the 12-team format. The conference has not landed an at-large berth.
BYU came close twice, but in both 2024 and 2025 the Cougars were sitting on two losses when selection day arrived. The message has been plain enough: two-loss Big 12 teams are not getting the same treatment as two-loss teams from the ACC, Big Ten or SEC.
So the stakes keep stacking up. BYU has Notre Dame.
Utah has its own gauntlet. Both have the Big 12 title race in front of them.
And the Holy War sits at the center of it all, waiting to decide who keeps chasing a one-loss season and who starts running out of room.
Which is why this one can’t get here fast enough.
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Iowa State is the sort of opponent that can make a favorite feel every mile of the travel schedule, and Utah head coach Morgan Scalley has already pointed to the roster changes the Cyclones have worked through as part of the challenge. The Utes and Cyclones are set for Saturday at 1:30 p.m., with FOX 13 carrying the broadcast, and for Utah it is the kind of game that can either validate the smooth start or expose how much more work still lies ahead. [Read more 🡒]