The Big 12 race and the College Football Playoff picture both run through a pair of tense Saturday tests for Utah and BYU, and both teams know exactly what’s at stake.
Utah heads to Arizona with a No. 2 CFP ranking, a high-powered offense and a quarterback in Devon Dampier who has turned the Utes into one of the sport’s most difficult problems.
Arizona defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales knows Dampier as well as anyone after recruiting him to New Mexico and facing him in practice there, but that familiarity only goes so far when Dampier is running Kevin McGiven’s offense in Salt Lake City instead of Jason Beck’s system at New Mexico. So far, nobody has been able to slow Utah’s attack in Morgan Scalley’s first season, and the result has been that lofty No. 2 spot.
Arizona will have its own firepower in Noah Fifita, and the matchup has the feel of a track meet. Utah’s defense leads the league in interceptions, while Fifita has been the conference’s best passer and the most prolific thrower in Arizona football history.
He has passed for 2,794 yards, 21 touchdowns and five interceptions. Isaiah Mizell has 40 catches for 753 yards and seven scores, and former Ute Chase Kennedy leads the Arizona defense with six sacks.
Arizona is scoring 34.2 points per game, while Utah is averaging 37.7.
The pressure on No. 2 teams has been a theme this season, with BYU, Ohio State and Notre Dame all losing after reaching that spot. No. 1 hasn’t exactly been safe either, with Ohio State, Texas and Georgia all taking losses while ranked there. Utah’s trip to Arizona lands right in the middle of that strange trend.
BYU’s situation is just as urgent, maybe more so. The Cougars return home needing a win over Baylor to keep their CFP hopes alive after a rough stretch and a loss at Rice-Eccles. Bear Bachmeier is looking to bounce back from a four-interception performance in that defeat, and his coach is sticking with him.
“He’s one of the best QBs in the country, and he’s done a great job for us here. I’ll go to battle with him any day,” said Roderick.
The Cougars will need more than faith in their quarterback. They need better offensive rhythm, especially in the third quarter, where they have been shut out against Utah, Notre Dame and Arizona State. If that happens again on Saturday, Kalani Sitake will be staring at his third loss of the season.
Baylor arrives with a defense that has been one of the league’s best. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big 12 in points per possession defense, No. 18 nationally in scoring defense and top 10 in red-zone defense.
They also rank 14th in turnovers gained. That matters for BYU, because ball security has been a problem in recent games, including the wet conditions that played a role in the Cougars’ struggles at TCU and their loss at UCF after beating Notre Dame.
Bachmeier has thrown for 2,022 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and he has also been a major part of the run game with 395 rushing yards and seven scores. He is BYU’s leading rusher after LJ Martin was injured at TCU, though Martin is back, if not at full strength, and RB3 Preston Rex should return Saturday. Freshman Legend Glasker leads the Cougars with 39 catches for 703 yards, and he figures to need more opportunities in this one.
The numbers around the line of scrimmage point to a rugged afternoon for BYU. The Cougars rank first nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed and fourth in fewest sacks allowed, while Baylor’s defense ranks second in both tackles for loss and sacks.
There’s also a little more good news in the region: Bronco Mendenhall has Utah State on a small run, and the Aggies should beat San Diego State.
Here are the week’s predictions:
Miami 42, Duke 17
Wake Forest 31, SMU 27
Iowa State 21, Cincinnati 17
Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 21
TCU 17, Kansas State 14
Tennessee 34, Texas A&M 21
Georgia 37, Missouri 31
USC 28, Indiana 21
Arizona State 24, UCF 21
West Virginia 31, Kansas 28
Texas 28, LSU 21
Oklahoma State 33, Texas Tech 31
Utah State 21, San Diego State 17
Utah 37, Arizona 31
BYU 27, Baylor 21
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