The Utah Jazz picked up another win last night, pushing their record to 10-15 on the season. On the surface, that sounds like progress - a team clawing its way forward under a young coach in Will Hardy, who’s clearly getting buy-in from his players. But dig a little deeper, and that win column starts to look more like a warning sign than a step in the right direction.
Because here’s the reality: ten wins by mid-December might actually be too many.
Let’s be clear - no one’s questioning the effort. Hardy is coaching to win, and the players are giving him everything they’ve got.
That’s part of building a competitive culture, and Hardy deserves credit for keeping his team locked in. But this season isn’t just about culture or development.
It’s also about strategy - specifically, how to protect a valuable 2026 draft pick that’s dangerously close to slipping away.
The Jazz owe a top-eight protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. If that pick falls outside the top eight?
It’s gone. And given the way the Jazz are trending, that’s a very real possibility.
The Jazz are currently on pace to win north of 30 games - and that could be enough to push their pick into the Thunder’s hands.
And that’s a problem. A big one.
Because this isn’t just about losing a draft pick. It’s about handing over a potential franchise cornerstone to a team that already looks like it’s built for a decade of dominance.
Let’s rewind to Saturday night. The NBA world tuned in for a marquee matchup between the Thunder and the Spurs in the NBA Cup semifinal - a battle of two teams built around generational talents. Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs got the win, but the bigger story was what both teams represent: the future of the Western Conference, and maybe the league.
The Thunder, fresh off a championship run led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, are off to a blistering 24-1 start this season. That ties the best 25-game start in NBA history - the same mark set by the 2015-16 Warriors.
And they’re not just squeaking out wins. They’re steamrolling opponents, often with their stars sitting comfortably in the fourth quarter.
They’re not just good - they’re terrifying.
And they’re loaded with future draft capital. The Thunder are set to receive four first-round picks in the 2026 draft.
That’s not a typo. Four.
One from the Clippers (unprotected), one from the Rockets (unprotected), one from the Sixers (top-four protected), and one from the Jazz (top-eight protected). The kicker?
They get the two best of those picks, along with their own.
Given how poorly the Clippers are playing, that pick could land in the top three. And if the Jazz keep winning just enough to fall out of the bottom eight, they could be handing over another lottery ticket to Sam Presti and his front office - a group that’s already proven they know exactly what to do with those picks.
Imagine this Thunder team - already a juggernaut - adding a top-tier prospect like AJ Dybantsa to the mix. That’s the kind of scenario that keeps rival GMs up at night.
Even if the pick doesn’t hit, the Thunder have so many swings at the plate that odds are, one of them will. And that’s exactly what the Jazz - and the rest of the West - can’t afford.
So what’s the play here for Utah?
If they want to hold onto their pick, they need to finish the season with one of the four worst records in the league. Fifth worst gives them a fighting chance.
Anything better than that, and things start to get dicey. For context, the team with the fifth-worst record last season (the Sixers) finished with 24 wins.
The year before, it was the Spurs with 22.
Right now, there are about seven teams on pace to finish with fewer than 25 wins. That’s the crowd the Jazz need to be hanging around with - not because they’re giving up on development, but because they can’t afford to hand over a top pick to a team that’s already built like a dynasty.
So yes, the Jazz are winning games. Yes, the players are competing.
And yes, Will Hardy is doing his job. But if they keep winning at this pace, they’re not just sacrificing a draft pick - they’re potentially handing the Thunder another weapon in an already loaded arsenal.
And that’s the kind of long-term loss that can haunt a franchise for years.